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6/17/13

Technical View:  The S&P has made the perfect pullback, a textbook 5% move of the highs and held at a re-test of the May breakout, also the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the November 2012 low to 2013 high range, and based along the 50 day SMA. The next task is to clear the channel down resistance that aligns closely with the downward sloping 20 day SMA at 1,642 where prior attempts have failed. A move through and close above that level should bring in the next leg of the rally with 1,650 and 1,675 standing in the way of a move to new highs at 1,700, also a bullish MACD crossover near triggering into this week. A great base has formed at 2013 trend support, but the potential also lies for a breakdown, though the strong breadth reversal off support suggests a higher probability of continuing the trend higher. Into next week levels to watch for support are 1,620, 1,613.5, 1,608 and 1,600, while a move below 1,600 would look to the 20 week EMA at 1,575 to hold as support, and if not a re-test of 1,538.

Sentiment/Internals:

The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment rose 3.5% to 33%, still well below the 39% historical average while bearish sentiment fell 4.4% to 34.6%, above the 20.5% historical average. The NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment rebounded to 61.9 from an extreme 51.6 reading the prior week, and still well below where it has been most of 2013. The latest week of equity fund flows showed a second week of outflows with $608M. As of Fridays close 175 stocks made New Highs and 51 at New Lows, and 50.8% of stocks are trading above the SMA50. The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed the week at 0.73, a bit elevated from the 0.65 average, and the Index Put/Call at 1.31 also elevated above the 1.02 average. Overall sentiment remains mostly bearish with concerns of a slowdown in China, the volatile markets in Asia, and Europe still struggling to show any economic progress. Stocks are also fairly oversold into next week.

June 18h, 2013

General Electric (GE) is trading 38,250 calls halfway through the session which is already daily average and 55% offer side with a Net Delta of +500K today in trades, notable action in June $24 calls at $0.18 offers with 16,500 contracts trading and June IV is bid above July and August with 3 days until expiration, likely seeing the Aviation Analyst Meeting overnight as a catalyst for shares though Skew not indicating a bullish bias. GE shares are breaking out of a bull flag and its 18 month channel up pattern intact with $25 the next target move. GE has also been in the news with rumors it could spin-off GE Capital. The $247B Co. trades 13X earnings, 1.68X Sales and 1.99X Book with a 3.2% yield and a lot of cash, also generating 10% forward EPS growth, so overall very attractive on valuation and plenty of room to make shareholder friendly moves.

Genworth Financial (GNW) trades 10,000 July $12/$10 bull risk reversals for a $0.10 debit with shares breaking out of a nice flag.

Fed-Ex (FDX) pre-earnings spreads are selling the June $105 calls to buy the July $110 calls at $0.08 debit for 3,000 contracts

VMWare (VMW) Strategy of the Month - Long Strangle

5/28: Closed International Paper (IP) Calls +114.3%

5/15: Closed Urban Outfitters (URBN) Calls +173.7%

5/14: Closed Lyondell (LYB) Calls +161.55%

5/14: Closed Salesforce.com (CRM) Calls +72.5%

5/7: Closed Mosaic (MOS) Diagonal Call Spread +88.9%

4/30: Closed Starwood Hotel (HOT) Calls +115.55%

4/26: Closed Informatica (INFA) Call Calendar +100%

4/24: Closed Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Call Spread +200%

4/9: Closed Disney (DIS) Calls +96.15%

4/2: Closed American Tower (AMT) Calls +140%

4/2: Closed Hertz (HTZ) Calls +177%

3/27: Closed Gilead (GILD) Calls +180%

3/22: Closed Dish Network (DISH) Calls +106.9%

3/18: Closed Vodafone (VOD) Calls +190.9%

3/13: Closed Trip Advisor (TRIP) Calendar Call Spread +300%

3/7: Closed Ciena (CIEN) Calls +68.4%

3/6: Closed Safeway (SWY) Calls +466.7%

2/21: Closed Home Away (AWAY) Calls +190.9% 

2/14: Closed Green Mt. (GMCR) Calls +63.65%, 1 Day Hold

2/13: Closed 2/3 Home Away (AWAY) Calls +109%

2/13: Closed All State (ALL) Fig Leaf Earnings Trade +84.5%

2/12: Closed Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Calls +100%

2/8: Closed Apple (AAPL) Calls +225%

2/5: Closed Estee Lauder (EL) Calendar Call Spread +114%

2/1: Closed KImberly Clark (KMB) Calls +100%

2/1: Closed Eaton (ETN) Calls +75%

1/24/13: Closed F5 (FFIV) Call Spreads +55.4%

1/22/13: Closed Halliburton (HAL) Calls +83.3%

1/17/13: Closed Exxon (XOM) Calls +42.4%

1/14/13: Closed Michael Kors (KORS) Call Spreads +55.%

1/10/13: Closed Skyworks (SWKS) Calls +40%

1/9/13: Closed Whirlpool (WHR) Calls +62.4%

1/3/13: Closed Norfol Southern (NSC) Calls +60%

1/2/13: Closed HIG Calls +50%

12/19/12: Closed DISH Calls +70%

12/21/12: Closed CBI Short Puts +100%

12/13/12: Closed KR Calendar Call Spread +100%

12/12/12: Closed GE Calls +45%

12/11/12: Closed C Calls +102.7%

12/11/12: Closed AMGN Calls +71.88%

12/10/12: Closed IBM Calls +34%

11/20/12: Closed VLO Calls +55.55%

11/13/12: Closed GILD Call Fly +300%