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Hawk’s Nest

Bullish Positioning in Small-Cap Bio Ahead of Key 2H Catalyst

by | May 12, 2022

IVERIC Bio (ISEE) with 2000 October $10/$35 call spreads bought this week to open for $3.75, expecting key Phase 3 data for Zimura in Q3, their treatment for geographic atrophy (GA) secondary to age-related macular degeneration (AMD). ISEE has seen 2400 October $25 calls bought while the January $22.50/$35 call spread is in open interest 3000X from 1/5. The $1.24B company focuses on ophthalmic diseases including age-related and orphan inherited retinal diseases (IRDs). GATHER2 is the second trial of Zimura that’s been developed. The treatment that targets and inhibit the complement protein C5 and the formation of its downstream fragments, C5a and C5b. ISEE believes that inhibiting these fragments, the treatment can slow inflammation and cell death related to the retinal aging process. Analysts have an average target for shares of $23 with a Street High $28. B Riley with a Neutral rating for shares on 5/12 as the firm does not see a favorable risk/reward profile at current levels based on uncertainty related to compliance issues stemming from Zimura’s benefit/risk profile. Stifel has a $28 PT for shares noting on 5/4 that they have confidence in results and also like how Zimura now has an exclusivity runway to 2034, up from 2029 previously. Baird with a $27 PT for shares. The firm thinks Iveric has encouraging pivotal Phase 2/3 GATHER1 data, a compelling proof-of-mechanism in geographic atrophy, and a well-designed Phase 3 study in patients most likely to respond, leading them to see a high likelihood of success for Zimura in the ongoing Phase 3 GATHER2 study. They expect meaningful upside on results and believes geographic atrophy’s large market size can support multiple commercial players. Hedge fund ownership rose 7.85%. Deep Track Capital a buyer of 4M shares while Redmile, Logos Global, and Commodore Capital buyers of stock as well. Avoro Capital is a top five holder while Perceptive also a top holder with 6.5M shares.