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Hawk’s Nest

Coffee Giant in Midst of Turnaround Story Sees More Long Term Bulls

by | Nov 3, 2024

Starbucks (SBUX) closed the week strong in a sluggish tape and saw late day buyers on Friday of 460 December 2026 $115 calls at $12.15 to $12.70. Over $550K for the long-term bullish trader that sees upside into next year and beyond for the coffee giant that is undergoing a turnaround story with their new CEO now at the helm for his first quarter as chief. The December 2026 options give over two years of time for the upside move to play out but since they are paying over $12 for the $115 calls it implies that the stock should be well north of 127 by then, which would be the breakeven level at expiration or roughly 28% from current prices for the stock.

SBUX is a $112B retailer of coffee worldwide trading at 31x earnings, 3.6x sales, with a dividend yield at 2.5% and revenue growth estimated at +4% in FY25 and expecting to accelerate at +8% into FY26-FY27. Short interest is 2.5% and hedge fund ownership has risen 6% in the past quarter. SBUX sees a lot of trading but what stands out is plenty of these longer-term call buyers in 2026 options positioning for further upside as the new management turns the tide. The new CEO mentioned on the conference call last week that a top priority includes re-establishing Starbucks as the community coffee house and reducing the number of new stores in fiscal year 2025 which should help efficiencies and balance investments.

SBUX shares have been a huge winner already since the stock launched higher in August and now is up about +35% in 3 months since the news of activist investors and a new CEO confirmed. The stock is showing positive momentum on the weekly chart and forming a narrow bull flag recently above the key 93 price point which is the year-to-date point of control on the volume profile and also seeing a 21/55 weekly EMA bull cross to the upside, showing more confirmation of bulls in control. A break above 100 now could target 105-107 while a bigger move into early 2025 should see 115 retested. As you can see in the chart below any pullback to the rising 8 week moving average (thin yellow line) the past month has been bought as the stock even reacted strongly to its earnings report weakness to end October on a high note.