Hawk Perspective: GLW has Fibonacci extension targets from the Spring correction up at $59.50 and $62.15 aligning with the November call positioning. November $55/$65 call spreads at $2.15 debit are an attractive risk/reward trade

AI Generated

Corning Incorporated (GLW) will report its Q2 2025 results before the market opens on Tuesday, July 29. Street consensus stands at EPS of $0.57—representing a robust 21.3% year-on-year increase—on revenue of $3.84–$3.85B, a 6.9–7% gain from the prior year. Notably, Corning’s Q2 guidance remains steady at $0.55–$0.59 EPS, with revenue targeted at $3.9B, and Wall Street’s consensus for FY25 EPS ($2.00) and revenue ($15.3B) continue to climb. Over the past four quarters, Corning has delivered three positive EPS surprises, with last quarter’s $0.54 beating consensus by $0.03, and shares have posted an average max move of 5.2% post-reporting, typically skewing higher on upbeat margin outlooks.

Corning remains a diversified materials science giant, with broad revenue streams from Optical Communications, Display Technologies, Specialty Materials, Environmental Technologies, and Life Sciences. The company’s core growth drivers in 2025 are soaring demand for optical fiber and connectivity for data centers and AI infrastructure, next-generation display glass for consumer electronics, and specialty glass/ceramic solutions for the automotive, medical, and industrial sectors. The recent launch of Gorilla Glass Ceramic and extreme-ultra-low expansion (ULE®) glass for advanced semiconductor and solar applications underscores Corning’s innovation engine, fueled by $1.24B in annual R&D—about 8.8% of revenue. Expanding AI data center capex, solar platform expansion, and new biotech supply contracts are expected to remain tailwinds for the next several years

Management commentary has been constructive. CEO Wendell Weeks reiterated a disciplined commitment to operating margins and cost controls following margin and cash flow improvement initiatives that helped support the Springboard plan. Recent industry commentary and analyst read-throughs highlight that AI adoption, increasing global bandwidth needs, and premium equipment demand have kept order backlogs well above pre-pandemic levels. Sector peers like Amphenol and TE Connectivity posted strong results that confirm robust infrastructure demand and a healthy supply chain for Corning’s core markets. However, some softness remains in traditional Display Technologies, as price pressure and cyclical inventory corrections continue to weigh on that segment.

Valuation is elevated but justified by Corning’s growth revival. Shares currently trade at over 50x trailing earnings (distorted by COVID-19 drag), but on a forward basis the PE is approaching 27x (TTM EPS $0.52; FY25e $2.00), and EV/sales is 3.2x—both above the five-year median and in the 75th percentile versus diversified industrial tech peers. PS and revenue consensus for 2025 have steadily trended higher since January on the back of successive margin beats and new product wins, with 2026 forecasts implying 17% EPS growth and high-single-digit sales gains. Both revenue and profit estimates have been revised upward by nearly $0.15/share and $150M, respectively, in the last six months, cementing Corning’s premium status amid secular tech spend.

Sell-side analyst sentiment remains solidly bullish. JPMorgan recently raised its price target to $65 (from $62), Citigroup boosted to $60, and UBS upgraded to $57, with most buy ratings projecting 10–20% upside from recent levels. The current consensus target is $57.73, accompanied by 9 Buys and only 3 Holds among Street analysts. Recent commentary has applauded Corning’s execution in specialty and optical, but some caution persists around capital returns (dividend and buybacks) as free cash flow is deployed to fuel growth.

Institutional ownership is robust at nearly 70%, with over $3.97B in net inflows among 938 new institutional buyers this cycle, and only modest net selling ($3.67B). Notable recent buyers include Integrated Investment Consultants and several larger asset allocators adding to positions. Insider activity, by contrast, has been skewed decisively negative over the past year: over $6.9M in sales by C-suite members (notably CEO Wendell Weeks and President Eric Musser) were recorded, with no significant open-market buys.

Technically, GLW is extended after hitting multi-year highs above $55 and a fresh all-time high at $56.10 this week, up 65% from the October 2024 lows. However, momentum is flagging, with daily RSI at 69 and signs of short-term overbought status, while MACD has rolled over, suggesting waning upside velocity. Key support lies in the $50–$52 range (50-day moving average and recent VPOC), with resistance now at $57–$60—a range mapped by options flows and recent technical pivots.

Options market activity is highly concentrated in the November expiry, with aggressive call buying at the $60 (45,000 contracts), $55 (15,000 contracts), and $50 strikes (4,000 contracts), signaling bullish positioning for a continued rally into late fall—a critical window for tech infrastructure demand. On July 23, a notable institutional married put trade involved 5,000 August $55 puts tied to stock, evidencing tactical downside hedging amid elevated implied volatility. The options market is pricing a 5.8% implied move for earnings, up from historical averages, and open interest in the call side is at multi-year highs, setting the table for a potentially sharp post-earnings reaction—particularly if guidance surprises with either acceleration or caution.

On the social sentiment front, StockTwits and Swaggystocks show message and bullish mention volume at 12-month highs, fueled by enthusiasm over GLW’s AI/data center exposure and upside options flow. The crowd bias is strongly positive, mirroring the options tape, with only modest concern around valuation or insider selling. There is renewed retail and institutional chatter around Corning’s leadership in next-gen glass/optical solutions for AI infrastructure, with few negative viral posts to temper optimism.

Corning enters this earnings report at a pivotal juncture—backed by robust end-market demand, record innovation output, and clear institutional and retail capital inflows, but priced for continued acceleration. While technical and sentiment signals are exuberant, recent insider selling and full valuation demand a clear “beat and raise” quarter to keep the multi-year rally intact, with the options market bracing for outsized directional follow-through as the AI and tech-infrastructure cycles remain in the spotlight