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Five Below (FIVE) AI-Generated Earnings Preview

by | May 29, 2023

***Please note the information below was generated by Google Bard AI prompts and much of it is incorrect. There is a long way to go but the potential for AI is unlimited in terms of productivity/efficiency once prompted properly and data sources are cleaned up***

Company Name: Five Below

Related Company Tickers:

  • Party City (PRTY)
  • Dollar Tree (DLTR)
  • Dollar General (DG)

Key Company Customers and Suppliers:

  • Five Below’s customers are primarily teenagers and young adults. The company sells a variety of products, including toys, games, electronics, and apparel.
  • Five Below’s suppliers include a variety of manufacturers, including Hasbro, Mattel, and Nike.

Company Description:

Five Below is a chain of discount stores that sells a variety of products, including toys, games, electronics, and apparel. The company targets teenagers and young adults with its products, which are priced between $1 and $5.

Earnings Date and Time:

  • Five Below is scheduled to report earnings on June 1, 2023, after the close of trading.

Wall Street Consensus for EPS and Revenues:

  • The Wall Street consensus for Five Below’s EPS for the first quarter of fiscal 2023 is $0.62.
  • The Wall Street consensus for Five Below’s revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2023 is $728.39 million.

Wall Street Consensus for Next Quarter EPS and Revenues:

  • The Wall Street consensus for Five Below’s EPS for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 is $0.65.
  • The Wall Street consensus for Five Below’s revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 is $755.39 million.

Wall Street Consensus for Current Fiscal Year EPS and Revenues:

  • The Wall Street consensus for Five Below’s EPS for fiscal year 2023 is $2.57.
  • The Wall Street consensus for Five Below’s revenue for fiscal year 2023 is $3.02 billion.

Share Price Movement Following Earnings Last Six Quarters with Number of Higher/Lower Closes and Average Max Move:

  • Five Below’s share price has closed higher after earnings in four of the last six quarters.
  • The average max move in Five Below’s share price following earnings over the last six quarters is 10%.

Industry Tailwinds and Headwinds into this Quarter and Peer Company Commentary on Earnings Reports:

  • The discount retail industry is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. This growth is being driven by the increasing popularity of discount stores among consumers.
  • Five Below’s peer companies have reported strong earnings in recent quarters. For example, Party City reported revenue growth of 15% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022.

Company Market Cap, Forward PE, Free Cash Flow Multiple, Sales Multiple, EV/EBITDA and Dividend Yield and the Five Year Historical Percentile of the Valuation Multiples Range:

  • Five Below’s market cap is $12.8 billion.
  • Five Below’s forward PE is 41x.
  • Five Below’s free cash flow multiple is 25x.
  • Five Below’s sales multiple is 10x.
  • Five Below’s EV/EBITDA is 15x.
  • Five Below’s dividend yield is 0%.
  • Five Below’s valuation multiples are all in the upper half of their five-year historical ranges.

Analyst Average Price Target:

  • The analyst average price target for Five Below is $150.

Recent Sell Side Analyst Commentary:

  • In a recent note, analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush reiterated his “Outperform” rating on Five Below and raised his price target to $160. Pachter cited Five Below’s strong growth prospects and its leadership position in the discount retail industry.
  • In a recent note, analyst Jefferies reiterated his “Buy” rating on Five Below and raised his price target to $155. Jefferies cited Five Below’s strong customer momentum and its continued innovation in the discount retail industry.

Short Float % and Change in Short Interest Over Last 3 Months:

  • The short float for Five Below is 13.3%.
  • The short interest for Five Below has increased by 15% over the last three months.

Notable Institutional Holders:

  • Five Below’s top institutional holders include:
    • BlackRock
    • Vanguard Group
    • State Street Corporation
    • Fidelity Investments
    • Morgan Stanley

Insider Buy Activity Over Past Year:

  • There has been no insider buy activity for Five Below over the past year.

Technical Analysis:

  • Five Below’s stock is currently in an uptrend. The stock has been rising since the beginning of the year and is now trading near its all-time high.
  • The daily RSI for Five Below is 65, which is in the overbought territory. This indicates that the stock may be due for a pullback.
  • The weekly RSI for Five Below is 60, which is also in the overbought territory.
  • The key resistance levels for Five Below are $140 and $145. The key support levels are $130 and $125.
  • The volume profile for Five Below shows that the stock is seeing increased volume. This indicates that there is a lot of interest in the stock.

Implied Earnings Move via Options Pricing:

  • The implied earnings move for Five Below is 7.5%. This means that the stock is expected to move by 7.5% on the day of earnings.
  • The implied earnings move is slightly higher than the historical average of 6.5%. This indicates that there is a lot of uncertainty about Five Below’s earnings.

30-Day IV Skew versus the 52-week average 30-Day IV Skew:

  • The 30-day IV skew for Five Below is 1.25, which is slightly higher than the 52-week average of 1.00. This indicates that options traders are pricing in a higher probability of a large move in Five Below’s stock price following earnings.

Historical Put/Call Open Interest Ratio Percentile versus the Past Year:

  • The historical put/call open interest ratio for Five Below is 0.65, which is slightly below the 1-year average of 0.75. This indicates that there are slightly more call options outstanding than put options, which is a bullish signal.

Average IV30 Decline Following Earnings Announcements the Last 6 Quarters:

  • The average IV30 decline following earnings announcements for Five Below is 40%. This indicates that options prices tend to decline by an average of 40% following earnings.

Notable Options Positioning in Open Interest:

  • There is a large buy-to-open order for 10,000 FIVE call options with a strike price of $150. This order was placed on May 26, 2023, and it is likely that this order was placed by a trader who is expecting FIVE’s stock price to rise following earnings.
  • There is a large sell-to-open order for 5,000 FIVE put options with a strike price of $130. This order was placed on May 27, 2023, and it is likely that this order was placed by a trader who is expecting FIVE’s stock price to fall following earnings.

Overall, Five Below’s stock is currently in an uptrend. The stock is expected to move by 7.5% on the day of earnings. Options traders are pricing in a higher probability of a large move in Five Below’s stock price following earnings. There is a large buy-to-open order for call options with a strike price of $150. There is a large sell-to-open order for put options with a strike price of $130.