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Campbell Soup (CPB) Earnings Preview

by | Dec 4, 2021

Campbell Soup (CPB) name that has drawn a lot of unusual bull flows lately ahead of earnings on 12/8 including a buyer of 1,450 January 2024 $38 calls on Friday for $1.23M. CPB has seen buyers in the January 2024 $33 calls recently for $1M, the February $42 calls, and February $45 calls since early September.  Shares are down around 20% from the March highs and forming a multi-week base above $40 and a big base breakout from late 2019. A gap higher above $42 has a low-volume gap to fill back to $45. Shares have closed higher in two of the last three with an average closing move of 4% and a max move of 10.11%. The current implied move is 3.25%. The Street is looking for $0.81 on $2.28B with next quarter at $0.76/$2.25B while the FY is at $2.76/$8.42B, flat Y/Y. The $12.25B company trades 14X earnings, 1.45X sales, and 38X FCF with a 3.6% yield. CPB has struggled in 2021 against tough comps and rising margin headwinds but looking to turnaround into 2022 as they implement new pricing hikes and reshuffle the portfolio. They continue to see strong demand against the two-year average on comps with record US soup gains and consumption and share gains for Prego, V8, and many of their ready-to-serve items. The company was at the Barclays conference on 9/9 and noting they’ve been winning market share with younger demographics, too, which is helping their ecommerce business and growth within new families. Analysts have an average target for shares of $45 with a Street High $54 from RBC but the firm thinks investors will continued to be concerned about Campbell Soup’s ability to offset inflation may limit additional upside in the near term. BAML out on 10/22 noting that recent Nielsen data continues to show CPB lagging broader consumption trends for at least Q1 2022. The firm notes that both volume and pricing have been weak while they continue to lose market share in soup and salty snacks. CPB could also face continued supply constraints limiting shelf availability. Hedge fund ownership fell 2.5% last quarter. Short interest is 8%.

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