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Earnings Preview for Anaplan (PLAN)

by | Aug 29, 2021

Anaplan (PLAN) reporting earnings on Tuesday after the close with the Street looking for a $0.13 loss on $133.8M in sales. Next quarter is looking for a $0.07 loss on $142.35M and the FY for a $0.36 loss on $558.7M, a 25% increase Y/Y. Shares have closed lower in four of the last six with an average closing move of 12.95% and a max move of 24.2%. The current implied move is 9.5%, cheap relative to prior quarter pricing. Shares are nearing a multi-week base breakout above $64 with a low-volume gap back to $71.25. A move higher targets the January highs. PLAN has a major volume node at $64 that stretches back to mid-2019. The $9B company trades 14.8X EV/sales with mid-20% growth. PLAN has struggled to gain momentum with back-to-back weak reports but sets up well for a recovery into the 2H and early 2022 as spending trends should shift towards more core digital transformation projects and away from pandemic-related issues. PLAN also talked a lot last quarter about companies positioning around supply chain issues where productivity/planning has now taken a greater focus. And, over the past three months, those issues have only been exacerbated which likely drives more contract wins for PLAN. Analysts have an average target for shares of $74 with a Street High $95. Barclays upgrading to Overweight on 8/3 citing valuation and set to benefit from enterprise heavy 2H spending trends. They also note checks indicate demand for the company is set to snap back in the 2H. Loop positive on 7/23 noting that recent industry checks suggest increased activity in the company’s target market, even though its large deal activity remains pressured, which has been the case for more than a year. Gordon Haskett with an interesting note on 6/7 as they think PLAN could be a target for activism. Short interest is 5.65% and down from around 18% in December. Hedge fund ownership fell 10% last quarter but notable buys from Echo Street Capital, Cadian Capital, and Carillon. Options flow has been bullish overall recently with 4,200 September $55 calls holding in OI and buyers recently in the September $70 calls, November $55 and November $60 calls.

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