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Earnings Preview for Elastic (ESTC)

by | Nov 28, 2021

Elastic (ESTC) reporting earnings 12/1 after the close with the Street looking for a $0.16 loss on $194.57M in sales. Next quarter is guided to a $0.22 loss on $202.48M while the FY at $813.71M, up 33.5% Y/Y. Shares have closed mixed over the last four reports with an average closing move of 9.3% and a max move of 16.04%. The current implied move is 8.5%. Shares have pulled back from recent 52-week highs near $190 and finding support at the low-end of November value. ESTC put in a reversal day on 11/24 and room to run on a bounce back to $171 and then $177. Both MACD and RSI are reset after strong runs. Options flow has been bullish with a buyer of 2000 January $160/$180 call spreads on 11/24 and buyers in the December $165 calls, May $260 calls, and February $220 calls. The $14.5B company trades 21.5X sales and 14.6X cash with mid-30% growth. ESTC is coming off of a nice quarter with robust customer acquisition and expansion in their overall business driven by continued adoption of their solutions and features. They have also seen strong usage trends among new customers, especially those with more than $100K ACV. ESTC should see continued strength in their Elastic Cloud business, especially as they expand on partnerships with Google and Azure. And they should continue to see strong trends in observability after strong pickups in business from peers like DataDog and Dynatrace in Q2. Analysts have an average target for shares of $185 with a Street High $230 from Monness Crespi as Elastic will benefit from an improving economy, strong secular tailwinds, expanded capabilities, and accelerated digital transformation initiatives in fiscal 2022. OpCo raising estimates in August citing demand across search, observability, and security; continued SaaS momentum; strong customer adds; and steady expansion metrics. Stifel positive as they think Elastic represents a compelling Cloud transition story given the increasing scale of its SaaS business that should sustain well above corporate revenue growth rates. Short interest is 10.5%. ESTC last saw notable insider buying in April 2021 with a director buying 5000 shares at $111.62, a more than $555K buy. Hedge fund ownership fell 2%. Suvretta Capital a buyer of stock.

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