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Earnings Preview for Tapestry (TPR)

by | Nov 7, 2021

Tapestry (TPR) reporting earnings on 11/11 before the open with the Street looking for $0.70 on $1.44B in sales. Next quarter is guided to $1.17/$1.9B while the FY is $3.32 and $6.4B, an 11% increase Y/Y. Shares have a mixed history closing higher in four of the last eight (and two of the last four) with an average closing move of 4.5% and a max move of 12.73%. The current implied move is 8.12%. The $11.85B company trades 11.45X earnings, 2X sales, and 10X FCF with a 2.35% yield and low-teens growth. TPR is coming off a strong quarter as they leaned into more digital channels and focused on data analytics to improve their supply chain operations. They also saw strength from China in Q4, an area they continue to consider a major long-term opportunity. TPR should continue to see strength from both Coach and Kate Spade as the reopening accelerates and they gain market share. TPR could have positive read-throughs this quarter from LVMH and Capri (CPRI). Analysts have an average target for shares of $45 with a Street High $61. BTIG lowering estimates on 11/1 but keeping a Buy rating noting that multiple conversations with sourcing contacts in Asia suggest that production shutdowns in the South of Vietnam that began mid-July and continued through October 1 have meaningfully impacted handbag unit production. While Tapestry has been working on shifting production to factories in other countries, the lost unit production appears to be material. Short interest is 2.45%. Hedge fund ownership fell 1.5% last quarter. On the chart, shares are breaking out of a big weekly bull wedge above $41 and room to run u to $45 and then $50. Options flow has been bullish with buyers in late October for the November $31 calls, over 2500X, while the $39 puts sold to open 2000X. The May $40 short puts also being opened in September.

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