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Earnings Preview for Victoria’s Secret (VSCO)

by | Nov 14, 2021

Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) reporting earnings on 11/17 after the close with the Street looking for $0.70 on $1.458B in sales. Next quarter is guided to $2.80 on $2.28B while the FY is guided to $7.19 on $6.92B. Shares closed lower by 3.5% in their one report post-split from L Brands. The current implied move is 10%. On the chart, shares rallied in August following the split but have pulled back and now forming a nice base around $50. A bullish wedge is developing under $54 with a breakout move targeting a run to $60. Options flow has been bullish with buyers in the December $55 and $60 calls, March $65 calls, and sellers in the November $50 and $45 puts. The $4.57B company trades 6.6X earnings, 0.69X sales, and 5.15X cash. VSCO has been executing on a major brand turnaround after appointing a new CEO in late 2020. The company has been reshuffling their portfolio including adding back swimwear, expanding size options, building out categories like maternity and shapewear, and overhauling their overall look and brand image around casual sleepwear. The company has also been rightsizing their retail footprint as they move to more digital sales. For the quarter, trends should remain strong while margins continue to improve due to a less promotional market.  Analysts have an average target for shares of $89 with a Street High $100. JPM positive on 9/30 citing clear confidence in mid-single-digit sales growth driving mid-teens operating margins on a consistent annual basis beginning in fiscal 2022. The firm also thinks supply chain headwinds on product delays and freight now more/less matching existing guidance, so there’s potential for upside to the outlook. BAML raised their PT to $90 on 9/19 noting that any letdowns around guidance should be transitory as the company works through issues like supply chain and logistics. Barclays starting at Overweight on 8/25 as the company has multiple levers available to reposition and grow, supported by an attractive risk/reward with a compelling valuation. Victoria’s Secret is benefiting from clean inventory and closure of unprofitable stores, with ample room for upside from revitalizing the brand. Short interest is 5.5%. Notable hedge funds involved in the name include Egerton Capital with 3.9M shares, Coatue with 1M shares, and Artemis with 626K shares.

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