Firefly Aero (FLY) shares hit a high near $74 during the August debut and have sold off to the $27 level, a very poor start, but since 9/30 has seen daily buys in February $30 calls with 5570 accumulating a large position in open interest as well as 3950 of the $40 calls. The company raised $868 million by selling 19.3 million shares at $45 per share—above its expected range—achieving a debut market capitalization of $6.3 billion. On its first trading day, shares surged more than 50%, briefly pushing its valuation close to $10 billion, making it the largest U.S. space technology listing of the year.

Based in Cedar Park, Texas, Firefly Aerospace develops and operates a broad portfolio of launch vehicles (Alpha small-lift, Eclipse medium-lift), lunar delivery vehicles (Blue Ghost lander), orbital transfer and servicing vehicles (Elytra), and lunar imaging payloads (Ocula). Its focus is end-to-end mission solutions for commercial, government, and national security clients—covering responsive launches, lunar missions, deep-space logistics, and space-based servicing platforms. The company has unique capabilities in rapid-response launches (gig-ready within 24 hours), successful lunar delivery (Blue Ghost, the first private U.S. lunar lander), and diversified government contracts, including a $177 million NASA award and ongoing DoD/Space Force work.

Firefly’s IPO proceeds will go toward repaying debt, funding new vehicle development, scaling rapid-launch operations, and future lunar and deep-space contracts. Firefly has also cultivated partnerships with blue chip defense and aerospace organizations like Lockheed Martin and L3Harris.

Firefly’s biggest publicly traded peers are Rocket Lab (RKLB), Redwire, and, at a larger scale, SpaceX (private) and Blue Origin (private). FLY distinguishes itself from Rocket Lab and other cohort IPOs by the breadth of its vertically integrated mission offerings, frequent award wins from NASA and the DoD, its capability for 24-hour launch turnaround, and a first-mover milestone as the first U.S. private company to land on the moon. FLY services for national security, space exploration, and commercial tech, aiming to keep America at the forefront.

FLY currently has a $4B market cap trading 24X EV/Sales but revenues seen surging 210% in FY26 to $432M and another 77% in FY27 to $765M, so valuation on FY27 revenues shares now trading 5.2X EV/Sales and profitability is also forecasted for FY27. FLY paid off its debt and became debt-free. In Q1, FLY posted revenue of $55.9 million (a 6x year-on-year jump), with a quarterly net loss of $60.1 million (deeper than $52.8 million the prior year). The company reported a backlog of $1.3 billion as of July 2025, nearly doubling from $560 million at the end of 2023—a sign of both commercial and government demand outpacing peers like Rocket Lab and bridging toward SpaceX’s model. Management reiterated its view that Firefly is well positioned for profitability as more government awards are converted to launches, with recent contract momentum supporting sustainable long-term growth. The call stressed strong commercial engagement, growing defense sector participation, and continued partnerships with NASA and the DoD as pivotal to future growth.

FLY is currently focused on scaling its technology to the Eclipse rocket and ramping up Elytra spacecraft. This year, the team is working on three large Blue Ghost missions for NASA. Firefly is focused on the Golden Dome program for potential contracts for rockets and satellites. Firefly aims to achieve a steady state of around 12 Eclipse launches per year by the end of the decade. Ocula is a high-resolution camera bolted on to the Elytra vehicle that will provide long-haul communications and lunar imaging services.

Long-term growth is driven by the boom in satellite launches (national security, constellation refreshes, commercial deployment), surging lunar logistics demand, and the expansion of U.S. defense procurement for responsive launch and in-space service platforms. Firefly faces risks typical of the sector: high cash burn, execution on ambitious launch/lunar schedules, and competition from larger, more capitalized players. Ongoing project losses and the need for additional capital in coming years are flagged as the main watch items for investors. The growth strategy is centered on scaling launch volume, expanding commercial and government partnerships, and continuing to invest in advanced vehicle development (Eclipse medium-lift, Blue Ghost lander, Elytra servicing platform).