National Vision (EYE) has seen insider buys this month with a SVP, multiple Directors and the CEO acquiring ~ $1.5M in stock since 5/16 in the $23.25 to $25.65 range. EYE shares are down 33.5% YTD and long-term has been one of the most consistent same-store-sales growth stories in Retail, so a potential opportunity. EYE shares moved under long-term lower value at $23.20 but regained the level the last few weeks with VPOC $26.55 and upper value near $32. EYE’s value offering in a weaker economy can allow it to gain market share.

EYE is one of the largest optical retailers in the United States and a leader in the attractive value segment of the U.S. optical retail industry. EYE provides eye exams, eyeglasses and contact lenses to value seeking and lower income consumers. EYE has a diverse portfolio of 1,354 retail stores across five brands and 16 consumer websites.

Eye care purchases are predominantly a medical necessity and are therefore considered non-discretionary in nature. Optical consumers typically replace their eyeglasses every two to three years, while contact lens customers typically order new lenses every six to twelve months, reflecting the predictability of these recurring purchase behaviors. Omni-channel and e-commerce platform sales represented approximately 11.2% of sales in 2022. As the U.S. population ages and life expectancy increases, the pool of potential customers and opportunities for repeat purchases in the optical retail industry are anticipated to rise. Digital eye strain is also playing a part in the larger percentage of population suffering from vision issues.

EYE has a market cap of $2.07B and trades 36X Earnings, 15.4X EBITDA and 63X FCF with revenues seen rising 5-9% annually the next three years and EPS seen down 21% in 2023 before returning to strong 30-40% annual growth the following two years. EYE’s 2023 outlook now appears de-risked with more earnings visibility provided on the last call. EYE is gaining share of optical units sold but unit share is growing while dollar share is declining highlights the primary concern with the business model. EYE could have a nice future opportunity in rolling out remote eye exams and some wage pressures from optometrists alleviating which can provide upside to both growth and margins.