Large CEO Buy in Beaten Up Quality Fintech
TransUnion (TRU) with a large insider purchase by the CEO on 8/5 as 25,000 shares were bought at $79.42 for $1.985M and the first large purchase in the name while a Director made a small $25K purchase in March. TRU shares are very oversold and consolidating below its 200-week EMA but the recent low held right at lifetime trend support with shares -30% YTD and lifetime VWAP at $68.50 likely important as a level that held into the 2020 lows. TRU’s recent low was also exactly at the 50% retrace of its lifetime range. TransUnion is a leading global information and insights company that makes trust possible between businesses and consumers with solutions that enable businesses to manage and measure credit risk, market to new and existing customers, verify consumer identities, mitigate fraud, and effectively manage call center operations. The global data and analytics market continues to grow with an emphasis on data and analytics-based decision making. The Financial Services vertical is 60% of revenues and consists of consumer lending, mortgage, auto and cards and payments lines of business. The Consumer Interactive segment offers solutions that help consumers manage their personal finances and take precautions against identity theft. TRU competition includes Equifax, Experian, LexisNexis, FICO, Verisk Analytics and LiveRamp. TRU currently has a market cap of $15.55B and trades 20X Earnings, 4.7X Sales and 15.5X EBITDA with revenues seen rising 27% this year and then reverting to 7% growth and accelerating the following two years while EBITDA seen growing at 18.5% this year and 9-15% annually. TRU operates with strong EBITDA margins near 40%. TRU is coming off a mixed quarter with strength in many verticals while mortgage and FX were headwinds. TRU is also integrating a string of acquisitions. TRU is attempting to transform two historically low-single-digit revenue growth businesses (Neustar and Verisk Financial) to double-digit ones. TRU has reduced its exposure to the US credit cycle which better positions TRU into a downturn, but does not eliminate risk. Analysts have an average target of $92.50 with short interest low at 2% of the float. BAML downgraded shares to Neutral last month citing macro pressures to the beat & raise story as the core business remains strong but challenges in some verticals.