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Management Commentary 11-30-2021

by | Nov 30, 2021

Automatic Data (ADP) at Nasdaq Investor Conference on white space potential…. “Yes. So I think, firstly, it’s always important to remember that we’re, give or take, $15 billion and $150 billion market. So there’s lots of runway, and there’s lots of — there’s still lots out there. I would say that there are still a lot of companies out there or players out there using legacy platforms. And as those legacy platforms got a service or supporting anymore, et cetera, we have opportunities certainly to win share in mid-market there. In addition, there are still an awful lot of regional players in the industry. And by the way, that’s true globally. The market is still incredibly fragmented. And so as smaller entities or smaller competitors, et cetera, find it more and more difficult to compete in an enrollment of a regional and global market, we do think that we have an opportunity to continue to win share and to continue to grow. So there’s lots of white space still left, as you said. The other aspect I would add here and from my more recent experience running the international business for a few years, there are — there’s still lots of opportunity in a couple of continents in the world, where the markets are continuing or starting to mature. And so evolving from agrarian or cash economies in the more formal economies, where all the governments like to collect taxes, et cetera. And when those things start to occur, certainly, there’s more and more opportunity for players like ADP.”

Dick’s Sporting (DKS) at MSCO Consumer Conf. on why it is a better company post-COVID…. “And that’s everything from the merchandise that we carry is highly differentiated now. We’ve been working on that partnership with our strategic vendors, so that we are carrying sort of higher heat product and product that is more differentiated. We’ve completely focused on service in the stores as well as experience in the store. So even back in 2017, we were bringing in HitTrax batting cages, and we had our golf simulators. We’ve been focusing on technology, and that — bringing that all in-house enabled us to spin up curbside during the pandemic so that we could seize all that momentum. But we now believe we have meaningfully — we know we have meaningfully rebaselined every single one of our key categories well above pre-pandemic levels. And then at the same time, we’ve improved our margin and our profitability significantly both because of significant increase in merch margin as well as the improvement in our eCommerce profitability and the flow-through from all of that higher sales to operating leverage and a whole bunch of other things. So that was a very long-winded answer, but I just wanted to — I’ll sum up by saying we are a completely different company than we were back in 2017, and the pandemic has only helped us accelerate that transformation.”

IPG Photonics (IPGP) pitch at the Nasdaq Investor Conference…. “The opportunity for fiber lasers is expanding, and it is a multibillion-dollar addressable market. Increasingly, fiber lasers are displacing non laser applications, both in materials, processing and in other areas. And that really represents the future growth opportunity of the company where historically, fiber lasers, initially, particularly in materials processing displaced existing lasers, for example, CO2 lasers in cutting or YAG lasers in welding applications. It really is a very, very diverse set of potential opportunities that we have. As I mentioned, our vertical integration enables us to drive and perform exceptionally well in terms of our earnings and profitability. Our margin profile is really — continues to be the best-in-industry and the best-in-class. And we also have a consistent history of converting earnings into strong cash flow and free cash flow generation. Fiber lasers really, in many instances, improve the productivity of processes. They, therefore, lower the cost and often perform the process to a higher quality. In many instances as well, they’re environmentally enabling certain benefits by reducing the use of consumables that are environmentally sensitive. Laser-based welding applications are starting to gain significant traction. Brazing is another joining technology that’s similar to welding is really subsets of the joining applications. Really laser based systems are — got a very strong opportunity to displace nonlaser-based machines. So laser-based systems are really about 10% to 12% of the total machine tool market and can displace a significant number of those process, not all of them, but a significant number of those different processes.”

Motorola Solutions (MSI) at CSFB Tech Conference on acquisitions expanding its markets… “Well, 3 years ago, plus or minus, we weren’t even in Video Security & Access Control. We love it because it’s a vibrant, large addressable market adjacency to what we do in public safety, and it utilizes the brand and the same sales channels so we could take that — those product and services and those assets from acquisitions and put it in the flywheel of distribution, both direct and indirect, for us to bend the curve up on revenue growth. We have the widest portfolio of anybody else on Video Security & Access Control because we have fixed video through 3 acquisitions of Avigilon, IndigoVision, Pelco. We have mobile video, body-worn camera, in-car dash cam. We have license plate recognition video. We have the analytics to go with that, and we will continue to build out that portfolio. I like the body-worn market because the historical incumbent hasn’t really had competition, and now we’re a vibrant alternative for a #2 here in the U.S. and internationally. We had great traction with a big order with the French MOI, to our knowledge, the second largest order ever on body-worn camera. So I love the traction we’re getting on that, and mobile video falls in the purview of Mahesh. But I think we’ve made a number of acquisitions. The addressable market is now $18 billion in 2022. That’s zeroing out for China because we’ve effectively exited China for everything we do. I think we will still look for video, software and services assets to acquire. But right now, we’re digesting and integrating what we’ve got.”

Constellation Brands (STZ) at MSCO Consumer Conference discussing megatrends…. “So if we think about beer, I think there’s a couple of things that are sort of what I would describe as mega trends, meaning bigger than our business that are certainly working in our favor. The premiumization, we’ve talked about it for a long time. It’s true across a lot of consumer businesses, but the consumer trading up is a very strong element of our long-term sustainability program. We’ve talked about the High-End now for a number of years, and you see it developing more and more. That is where the growth profile is, and we’re obviously there to take it. Second mega trend is the growth in the Hispanic community, just as an ongoing growth of that demographic. And as you know, we over SKU, whether it be Corona or Modelo and there’s some variances there, but both Corona and Modelo overskewed to the Hispanic demographic. So as that demographic grows, that’s certainly advantageous and a tailwind for our business as well. So there’s just a tremendous opportunity that we see going forward for Modelo Especial in the overall Modelo franchise. It still only has about 75% of the household penetration of Corona, as an example. So the upside that we see in Modelo is immense. Pacifico is, again, one of those earlier stage brands that looks a lot like Modelo looked 10 to 15 years ago. A lot of upside with Pacifico. It’s 60% of its business today is in the State of California. It’s the #7 brand out there. That’s a lot of the feature kind of given about Modelo back then. So we’re very excited that that’s going to be why I think one of the franchises that we talk about a lot going forward.”

F-5 (FFIV) at CSFB Tech Conference on Shape…. “Shape brought to us world-class anti-bot and anti-fraud capabilities that we didn’t have before. So even if you just take it as a stand-alone, you can think Shape — it’s simply the greatest traffic profiling capability that is out there in the industry today. Well, you’re hearing and Shape stand-alone itself is growing, because there is more demand for — I mean the increase in bot attacks and they have increased again in the pandemic and fraud is there. And so customers, who have that pain or can identify that pain or really want to protect against that pain and have the insurance, they are going and pushing it stand-alone, even if there’s friction in it. But yes, in addition to that, you’re going to see more deals where the Shape was part of BIG-IP and it accentuated the differentiation for BIG-IP, and we’re winning same with NGINX, same with Volterra. Where you have that bundle, and that security stack is best-in-class. And we win a deal, not just because we have web access firewall and API security, but because we have a best-in-class bot and customer absolutely needs that. And we’ve started to see that already in the last couple of quarters where we integrated Shape with our Silverline offering, which is a managed security services for WAF and DDoS. And we added the bot to that from Shape, and we’ve seen an uptick in the sales of that already. So — but that will be — we’re in the early innings of that, and I think you’ll see more of that through 2022.”

Ambarella (AMBA) earnings call on the growing funnel and Rivian win… “We’ll go into a lot more detail on the funnel at our Capital Markets Day in January 4. But just to give you some of the high-level parameters continues to be a 6-year funnel. It uses the same methodology that we employed a year ago. There is no radar in this funnel yet. And looking at the key elements that add up to the $1.8 billion, there would be the 1 component, which increased from $400 million a year ago to about $700 million in this current tunnel. And the pipeline portion of it is now about $1.1 billion. And the other thing that we can add to this funnel description and characterizing the current funnel is that a vast majority of it is CV SoCs and in particular, of the increase from a year ago, a vast, vast majority would be computer vision SoCs Hopefully, that gives you enough color. Absolutely, the Rivian side, we talked about we have 3 silicons in there, 3 type of silicones in there. The first type is CV2AQ — multiple CV2AQ in the Rivian R1T car and the function of the CD28 is doing video perception. So that’s definitely the key components that we want to shoot for in the future. And you can see that we definitely providing the majority of the perception in the R&T car. The second type of silicon is CD22, which provides the surround view as well as some security camera functions that R&D has — And the third type is P8 is really a serial chip for the MP interface. And those are 3 things that we provide through the R&D.”

Global Foundries (GFS) earnings call on increased Automotive content and changing end market mix…. “The strong growth in our automotive end markets was driven by the ramp of new designs that have been in development and qualification over the past years. GF’s automotive products are now going into a variety of automotive uses, such as in-vehicle comfort, safety, sensing and battery management solutions and EVs. The chip shortage in the auto industry has accelerated demand for many of our customers who have entered into long-term agreements with GF to ensure supply continuity for their new products that ramp over the next 3 to 5 years. We are very excited about our strong traction in the automotive end market. So what we’ve spoken about is that our end market mix longer term, our personal computing segment will become a smaller part of our business as a percentage of total revenue going forward. I think you’re starting to see some of that on a sequential basis, and you’re certainly seeing some of that on a year-over-year basis. So that’s a trend that we expect to continue over time as we start to reach our longer-term model, let’s call it the 2025-ish time frame. Automotive for us, you’ve seen grow in a very meaningful way this year off a very small base, granted, but we have some very nice design wins. You’ve seen some of those publicly announced in the marketplace. You’ve seen some of the partnerships that have also been announced. And so that’s a segment for us. That could get to a level of, call it, 10% to 15% of business longer term, that’s something that could grow for us in a really meaningful way. Comms, infrastructure and data center, home and industrial IoT and smart mobile devices, those are all areas where we have real franchises. So whether — we’re talking about our franchise in connectivity and SOI, whether you’re talking about some of the things that we’re able to do uniquely in power management, whether you’re talking about longer-term silicon photonics or silicon germanium, those are some areas where we have some real differentiation of the company, and those market segments will start to grow as those design wins are employed. “

Informatica (INFA) earnings call on its unique attributes…. “First, and most important, it’s product innovation. We’ve always had the clarity to focus on data management category, and have dedicated significant resources, including over $1 billion in cumulative R&D spending over the last 5 years. These investments have resulted in best of these solutions on the industry’s only AI-powered data management platform, IDMC, for multi-cloud and hybrid workloads.  Second, it’s our vendor neutrality. We call ourselves the Switzerland of data, and we believe is winning together with our partners. Enterprises across the globe have invested in a heterogenous infrastructure and expect vendor neutrality. Third, we participate in a $44 billion addressable market, with cloud increasingly growing faster than on-prem workloads. Accelerated adoption of cloud, digitization, expanded need for intelligent analytics and large-scale disruption in data warehouses and data bases is fueling the demand for data management solutions that are cloud leader and delivered on a platform versus siloed best of reforming.”

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