Match Group (MTCH) Earnings Preview
Match (MTCH) will report earnings on 5-4 after the close with the Street looking for $0.40 on $650.6M in revenues, a 19.5% increase Y/Y. Next quarter is guided to $0.54 and $678.76M while the FY is $2.17 and $2.84B. Shares have closed higher in three of the last four with an average closing move of 8.5% and a max move of 12.22%. The current implied move is 7%. MTCH has a notable weekly chart setup and bullish options flow as well. A breakout above $165 has room out to $210. Last week, the May 7th (W) $160/$177.5 call spread was bought 1500X, the May $160/$175 call spread was bought 2000X, while the May $150 calls also with buyers recently. The $41.65B company trades 57X earnings, 17.5X sales, and 56X cash. MTCH is positioned well for Q2 and beyond in 2021 with the reopening a tailwind for downloads and a resumption in premium buys. The company will also be positioned better for the pent up demand for meet ups with their deal for HyperConnect and likely gives more details on the deal during the call. This quarter is likely to be more muted as COVID continued to drive an uneven pace of lockdown easing. Sensor Tower data, according to BAML, showed app downloads were modestly lower for Tinder in Q1 vs Q420. Analysts have an average target for shares of $146 with a Street High $175. BTIG upgraded to Buy on 4/12 seeing upside to the company’s 2022-2025 expectations on re-opening tailwinds, new products, Hyperconnect acquisition and emerging brand/live streaming opportunities. The firm also thinks we’ll see a resurgence in ARPU for Tinder citing the re-opening, Platinum launch, and the addition of Hyperconnect to drive the upside in the second half of this year. Short interest is 4.65%. Hedge fund ownership rose 4.5% in Q4, Whale Rock a new 2.45M share position.