Seasonal Stock Setup: Chemical Leader Bubbling Out of Basing Pattern
Dow Chemical (DOW) – The materials sector’s seasonal strength into November continues as XLB is at fresh highs on its way to the 11th straight positive November. Another Materials stock that has yet to participate in the sector advance is DOW. The stock is up slightly in November thus far but offers up strong seasonality with it being higher in 10 of the last 10 years in November and an average gain of +9.65%. November has shown the strongest returns for DOW in addition to May. The stock just now closed above its 200 day EMA and looks poised to pop above a downtrend line from June and challenge the YTD VPOC at 63 as a first target. RSI is back in bull mode above 50 and a squeeze pattern is forming. DOW hit a high of 71 in late May and was up 28% YTD at one point before correcting back lower and forming its current basing pattern. On the upside if it clears 63 it has a volume pocket back to near 67.50. With the stock up just shy of 8% year to date, there is plenty of room to catch up to other materials stocks that have run higher already. DOW has started to see some fresh bullish options flow the past few weeks with buyers on 10/26 in the January 2023 $50 ITM calls for $1.9M. Also opening put sellers have been popular including the January 2023 $42.50 puts sold 2500x for nearly $700k on 11/2.