Seasonal Stock Setup: Credit Processor Into Holiday Spending Season
Mastercard (MA) – The credit card processors have seen some choppy action the last month as both MA and V try to form a base near the 200 day EMA. Mastercard specifically has some positive seasonality the last 10 years into the 4th quarter with Oct, Nov and Dec all up more than 70% of years. November is the most positive month for MA looking back the prior 10 years, being up 80% of years and up by an average return of +4.1%. Going into the holiday shopping season may be part of the reason for the increase in business spending and thus credit card usage into Q4. Overall the recent pullback to the YTD VPOC and 200 EMA is an ideal entry point for a more longer term position in this sector. The 365 level represents a key value area that could confirm a new uptrend is price breaks above. RSI has crossed back above the 50 level showing relative strength lately ahead of price hammering out a short term basing pattern. The last few weeks MA has seen recent bullish options flows including on 10/5 a buyer of March 360 calls bought for $10M in premium. Also a recent November 360 call buyer for $3.8M.