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Seasonal Stock Setup: Financial with Bullish Year End Tendencies

by | Nov 17, 2021

Bank Of America (BAC) – The financials have had a nice start to Q4 with XLF up over 7% on the quarter. The tendency is for banks to lead into the 4th quarter as the last 10 years has shown a bullish bias. The most recent 5 years the Financials sector XLF has been up an average of +2.41% for Q4 which is the best performing sector in that timeframe. Interest rates are expected to tick higher into 2022 and that is a tailwind for the big banks. With the 10 year yield pushing back over 1.6% this past week, it could be time to look for more year end outperformance in the Financials that continue to show strong trends and relative strength. BAC broke out of a long basing pattern in late September and has been flagging in a bull wedge this month on top of its monthly value and its 21 EMA. A break higher likely targets the 50 dollar round number. Seasonally BAC has been bullish in November and December the last 10 years. Being up 8 out of the last 10 Novembers and with an average gain of +7.35%. December is up 70% of the last 10 years as well so a potential year end rally on the horizon in BAC. Interestingly, the 10 year yield TNX has had stronger upside in December over the years with 8 of the last 10 Decembers finishing higher. The stock has seen some recent flows on the bullish side since late October. The September $47 puts sold to open over 5100x for $2.4M in premium showing confidence in the 47 level. Also on 11/11, the September $43 ITM calls were bought for $1.4M.

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