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Seasonal Stock Setup: Financials Setting Up for New Highs into Strong December

by | Dec 8, 2021

Morgan Stanley (MS) – The banks have been consolidating the last few months as interest rates dance around the 1.50% yield mark. The end of year is seasonally a fairly bullish time for financials with XLF being up 8 of the last 10 December’s overall. MS specifically has been up 7 of the last 10 years in December with an average return of +2.1%. Even going back 20 years, Morgan Stanley has been up 15 of those years in December, gaining on average +2.63%. One of the strongest charts in the financial sector currently, MS closed above its monthly value Tuesday at 102.50 and is seeing an 8/21 EMA bull cross. The stock is forming a bull wedge with RSI breaking out to 57 confirming the move in price. MS ended November on a soft note pulling back to its lower edge of recent value but held the 95 level which was a strong VPOC support from August. The TTM squeeze is coiling up and showing a slingshot pattern to the upside. Potential Fibonacci extension targets above show up at 108.5 and 112. MS is up a strong 49% YTD as financials overall have benefitted from higher interest rates and the coming taper from the Fed. If interest rates continue to nudge higher into year end and to start 2022 as the longer term trends suggest, then banks likely add on to their 2021 impressive gains. MS saw a large call buyer in late November positioning for long term upside as the January 2023 $97.5 calls were bought at $11.75 over 3500x for $4.1M.

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