Seasonal Stock Setup: Long on Lodging Leader
Marriott International (MAR) – The travel and lodging sector is seeing relative strength as of late with key stocks trending higher. Marriott is one hotel name that has a strong seasonal tendency to rally into Q4 with October seeing upside in 70% of the prior 10 years and an average return of +3.72% for the month. November is even stronger with an average return of 6.2% over the last decade. The trend for travel into the holidays is no surprise and likely is even stronger this year as most of the country begins to travel more than it did last year. MAR has broken out of the weekly downtrend it was in for much of the summer and has room to continue to new highs and beyond based on the weekly squeeze pattern only a few weeks old. One of the few stocks and sectors in the market that did not decline in September and now with a strong bull structure with stacked EMA’s pointing to dips likely being bought. A simple fibonacci extension measuring the highs to lows of 2021 points to a target short term of 170. MAR has seen some recent bullish options flows including on 9/27 a buyer of 700 November 5th (W) $155 calls being bought for $6.35 to $6.80, earnings expected 11-5.