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Seasonal Stock Setup: Pharma Stock Near Highs with Strong Year End Seasonality

by | Nov 26, 2021

Eli Lilly (LLY) – The Healthcare sector can show some stronger defensiveness when the market starts to weaken so looking at potential rotation into year end makes sense. LLY has trended well historically in November, December, and January. December has been higher 8 of the last 10 years for an average gain of +4.66% with similar performance in January. In the more recent 5 year history the stock has been up an average of over 6.6% in both Dec and Jan. Looking to see if Eli Lilly can push to new highs into its seasonally strong time of the year after it held its 21 EMA on a few recent dips. RSI remained above 50 as the stock consolidated in a bull flag pattern the last few weeks. Support on the downside comes in at the 55 EMA near 250 and monthly value area at 245. An upside breakout likely targets new highs over 275 with an eventual path to 300. LLY has seen some mixed action in the options the last month but the largest trades seem to be bullish. On 11/5 a buyer of the January 270/290 call spread over 3200x paying nearly $2M in premium. Also on 10/19, the January 2023 $190 calls bought for $5.7M and the Jan 2023 $210 calls for $2.3M, both up over 30% and still in OI.

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