Small Eye Disease Biotech Attracts Bull Positions into Key Readout
Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) with an interesting large opening sale of 2000 October $25 puts for $3.90 on 5/10 and on 5/25 the July $25 calls bought 1000X near $1.65. Viridian is advancing monoclonal antibodies VRDN-001 and VRDN-002 for the treatment of thyroid eye disease and appears fairly de-risked since its candidates replicate the mechanism of an approved drug but with potentially more favorable underlying properties. This would compete with Horizon (HZNP) blockbuster Tepezza. TED is currently a $2 billion market in just the United States and is expected to grow to over $4 billion globally with just one product currently approved. VRDN has a $1B market cap and trades 2.75X Cash and less than 2X FY27 forecasted sales. VRDN shares are down 18.75% YTD retracing a strong move to close 2022 but at key support of VWAP off 2022 lows, a 50% retracement and key longer-term VPOC, needing to get back above $25.60 to inflect the trend. The upcoming readout on VRDN-001 IV in chronic TED in June-July is a major catalyst and VRDN does have a large short float at 38.5%. Wells Fargo recently started shares Overweight with a $46 target positive on 2023 catalysts and seeing a differentiated profile to Tepezza. Stifel started at Buy in March with a $49 target seeing $1.7B peak US sales potential for its anti-IGF-1R modality.