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Top Provider of Aerospace Components Draws Insider Buys Amid Improving Outlook for Industry

by | Sep 19, 2021

Transdigm (TDG) nice setup with shares pulling back to the 200-MA after a big run from the March 2020 lows and size insider buy on 9/7 from CFO Michael Lisman of 1,700 shares at $591.19, a more than $1M investment. TDG shares are basically flat for the year but forming a nice wedge under $620 with plenty of upside to $680 and then a measured move to $800. The $33.5B company trades 35.4X earnings, 7X sales, and 7.5X cash. TDG was positive in August on the overall trajectory of the recovery in the commercial aerospace industry while aftermarket revenues rose in the high-single-digits. They continue to see better bookings trends into 2022 while both Airbus and Boeing are planning to ramp their production of narrow-body planes. TDG continues to generate significant cash and recently explored a deal for UK-based Meggitt that they later walked away from. The company has around $4.5B in cash that they expect to put to work on M&A and likely active again by the end of 2022 on an accretive move or two.  Analysts have an average target for shares of $685 with a Street High $765. Goldman resinstating coverage at Buy on 9/10 noting that TransDigm has one of the best business models in the space with highly recurring sole-source revenue and pricing power that drives peer-best margins and free cash flow compounding. The firm expects TDG to emerge from the pandemic leaner with tailwinds as global air travel resumes a long-term growth trajectory. Vertical Research upgrading to Buy earlier this year as one of the best placed companies to benefit when the aero aftermarket recovery comes with plenty of firepower to deploy on accretive deals when the time is right. Hedge fund ownership rose 3% last quarter, Lone Pine a buyer.

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