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Unusual Call Buy in Payments Grower with Strong Moat

by | Nov 1, 2022

Flywire (FLYW) highly unusual aggressive buy of 2500 December $25 calls to open at the $1.30 offer on 11/1 and also has seen 2500 November $25 calls accumulate in open interest from buyers. FLYW will report on 11/8 and jumped as much as 19% last quarter on results, a name that came public in May of 2021. FLYW has sold off 55% the past year as software multiples have compressed but has screened as one of the more attractive names. Shares remain well below VWAP from the IPO and 2021 highs with $27 and $30 key levels to clear. Flywire is a payments firm that provides support for complicated international transactions. FLYW acts as a middleman that bundles payments, negotiates better rates with banks, and tracks transfers overseas. Their network has grown into a full-service platform that includes industry-specific billing and payments, real-time integration into existing back-ends, and a feature-rich UX. FLYW also provides regulatory compliance.  The company sees a massive market opportunity to be disrupted with inroads into four major verticals already for international clients: healthcare (helping hospitals in the US accept payments from overseas patients), travel (allowing money transfer for travel-related expenses between businesses), B2B and education – over 1,900 educational institutions are in their ecosystem. FLYW has a $2.29B market cap and trades 7X EV/Sales and 6.35X Cash with revenues seen rising 36.6% in 2022 and 30%+ each of the next three years with profitability also starting to inflect with 25% profit margins seen over time. At a Goldman Conference in September FLYW reiterated their new strategic initiatives, and discussed the progress of their recent acquisitions — WPM and Cohort Go — indicating their intention to continue to look for similar M&A opportunities. The company continues to focus on new areas including 1) strategic payables, 2) non-client receivables, and 3) new payer services. The company continues to believe they are early stage within their market. The main keys for delivering on their expected margin targets remains around capitalizing on growth opportunity and providing high ROI products and services to their customers. Analysts have an average target of $31 and short interest is low under 5% of the float. Loop recently started shares Buy with a $25 target and Truist at Buy with a $36 target seeing a major sustainable competitive advantage and long run for superior organic revenue growth. Goldman upgraded to Buy in July with a $30 target citing defensive verticals like education and noting FLYW’s concentration in higher education (historically a very countercyclical space) and healthcare (non-discretionary) as well as idiosyncratic benefits from its acquisition of WPM in December 2021 should provide a significant amount of resiliency in the years to come.

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