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Hawk’s Nest

Micron Options Flow Signals Captures Massive Move Higher

by | Mar 31, 2024

Micron (MU) is a great example of utilizing long-term options positioning to catch massive 6+ month moves as we wrote on 8/24/23, and shares have nearly doubled since resulting in huge gains for option traders.

Here is what we wrote 8/24/23

Micron (MU) will report in late September and has seen a lot of recent bullish positioning with potential for the memory cycle to be bottoming including October $70 calls bought 15,000X with the $52.50 puts sold on 8/18. MU has also seen 2000 March $65 puts sell to open along with opening sales in March $60 and $55 puts. On 8/8 a large trade sold 4000 June 2024 72.50 puts to open for over $4.3M. MU technicals are also setting up favorably with the recent low a higher low above a rising 200-MA and bounced right at lower monthly value and 2023 trend support. MU sets up for a push to $75-$80 by 1H24. MU is a leader in memory and storage solutions including DRAM, NAND, 3D XPoint™ memory, and NOR with key market segments like mobile, data center, client, consumer, industrial, graphics, automotive, and networking. MU stock correlates tightly to memory pricing and the impact on its margins. MU should also benefit from increasing memory demand with the surge in AI applications. MU has a market cap of $71B and trades 3.95X Sales and around 5X expected FY25 EBITDA as the cycle starts to turn higher in 2024. In AI, price per bit premiums of 5x for high bandwidth memory and about 2.5x for 128 GB SDRAM can help margins. The company talked about a partnership using mobile DRAM to enable the massive DRAM content in NVIDIA’s GH200 server cluster on its last earnings call. Analysts have an average target of $75 with short interest low at 1.8% of the float and down 25% Q/Q. Wolfe started at Outperform on 7/19 with a target of $80 wanting to be early ahead of improving pricing and inventory normalization. Argus noted a challenging environment with weak demand in consumer/business, weak pricing and complications in China. KeyBanc with an $80 target sees PC/smartphones inventories normalizing and data center to normalize by the end of the year.