Crocs (CROX) shares have surged more than 65% since our bullish write-up on 10/11/23 highlighting long-term positioning in Crocs options out to June 2024 resulting in massive gains for call options.

Here is what we wrote on 10/11/23:

Crocs (CROX) on 10/10 saw big action in June 2024 with the $95 and $100 calls trading 2000X to open in a call spread and the $105/$110 call spreads bought 2600X positioning for a rebound potentially starting after the coming Birkenstock IPO this month. A sympathy play of sorts possibly in the footwear sector if the IPO is received well. CROX has gotten oversold this year after a strong start to 2023 and now back at long term support. Also last month saw a large opening seller for 900 March $85 puts at $8.60 for over $800K showing confidence at current levels. Also back in July saw large long term positions open in January 2025 $150/$100 bullish risk reversals at small net debits which reaming in OI alongside the $180/$100 bull risk reversals, willing to own stock at 100 minus the $16 credit received. CROX also saw recent large insider buys into weakness with the CFO buying $200K near $101/share while a few other directors buying more than $1.5M in total between $94-$105.The $5.4B footwear company now trades just 6.8x earnings, 1.7x sales, FCF yield at 12.8% with revenues expected to rise +13% in FY23 and growth estimated at +7% in FY24. Crocs, Inc. is engaged in the design, development, marketing, distribution, and sale of casual lifestyle footwear and accessories for women, men and children. The Company’s Crocs Brands collection contain Croslite material, a proprietary, molded footwear technology. Shares have been pulling back to the top of its 2022 yearly value area support near this 85 level which also lines up with the long term 200 week MA, often a strong buy point for growth names. A move back over 90 would see first resistance at 100 where the 21 week EMA is and longer term these call spreads looking for a bottom to be formed and steady rebound higher. YDT VWAP at113.50 so prices are quite extended from that and often can produce a snapback. CROX is coming off a mixed quarter beating estimates but giving inline guidance. The CEO however saying both the Crocs and HEYDUDE brands continue to gain share and bring in new consumers with our comfortable offerings, as evidenced by DTC growth of 26% in the second quarter. Average analyst price target is $134. Wedbush last month saying the sum of parts math shows a very undervalued stock and they believe the shares are at least 25% undervalued today. Loop Capital has a $175 target still and keeps a Buy rating saying recently that the Hey Dude acquisition should still accelerate the overall long-term growth rate for the company. Stifel upgraded the name in July and lowered its target to $130 saying positives outweigh the negative. he firm sees factors showcasing improved balance and increasing our confidence into FY24, citing profit pool diversification, improved balance sheet optionality, and “a very forgiving valuation. Short interest is at 8.4%. Hedge fund ownership rose 15%.