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Hawk’s Nest

Put Sales Target Small-Cap Copper Producer Hudson Bay (HBM)

by | Jan 10, 2022

Hudson Bay Materials (HBM) with one of the more unusual trades on Friday trading 120X average puts with 2000 July $7.5 puts sold to open for $1.20 and name that already has 2000 April $5 calls in open interest from buyers. HBM also has 3800 January $7.50 puts in OI from June. HBM is flagging in a multi-week range under $7.60 and a breakout targets a run to $9, a more than 20% upside drive. A push above that level would clear the 2021 peak and nice continuation of the longer-term bull trend with room to move to $13.50. The $2.35B company trades 8.77X earnings and 1.32X sales with 39% growth in FY21. HBM is a Canadian-based precious metals miner with copper making up around 60% of their overall mix. HBM has a low-cost profile and expects meaningful production growth in 2022 to boost cash flows and give them flexibility to reinvest. HBM sees major secular drivers like decarbonization, EVs, and urbanization trends as key to copper’s attractive long-term profile. National Bank upgraded shares to Outperform in September noting that there’s been weakness due to heightened political risks in Peru, but political risks will subside and it is unlikely any major royalty/tax reform would impact current fiscal stability agreements.