Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) recent unusual options activity with 2000 October $40 short puts opened and 2600 September $40 short puts opened, typically a strong bull signal in Biotech small caps and confident shares hold that level the next two months.

APGE shares are +70% YTD as a top performer and shares pulled off highs in Q2 finding support at the post 2023 IPO AVWAP. The AVWAP off its record highs has held as resistance so clearing $52-$54 zone key to an upside rally. APGE also screened as a top Biotech pick to start 2024 in the annual outlook report.

APGE is a clinical stage biotechnology company seeking to develop differentiated biologics for the treatment of atopic dermatitis (AD), asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and related inflammatory and immunology (I&I) indications with high unmet need. Its antibody programs are designed to overcome limitations of existing therapies by targeting well-established mechanisms of action and incorporating advanced antibody engineering to optimize half-life and other properties. APGE’s two most advanced programs are APG777 and APG808, which it is initially developing for the treatment of AD and COPD, respectively. While the use of novel therapies in these patients is in the early stages, Apogee is on the path to produce best-in-class drugs from a dosing frequency and efficacy perspective. Apogee’s pipeline targets clinically validated mechanisms with proof-of-concept PK data that should ultimately translate into commercially differentiated assets. Apogee just started a phase 2 trial in moderate-to-severe AD (~40% of all cases), with 16-week data expected in 2H25 for APG777. APG808 is currently in a phase 1 trial, with initial PK and safety data expected in 2H24.

APGE has a market cap of $2.77B and trades 4.1X Cash and no current forecasts for revenues. Apogee has ~$850M cash on hand and that should be sufficient to fund APG777 through phase 3 development and APG808 through phase 2 proof-of-concept data, and progress other earlier stage programs into phase 1/ 2 development.

Analysts have an average target of $85 and short interest is elevated at 13.3% of the float rising from 5% in April. BAML started shares Buy in May with an $80 target seeing APG777 with  the potential to be best-in-class biologic for AD, which can affect up to 25% of children and 3% of adults in the US which would compete with Lilly (LLY) and Regeneron (REGN) drugs. BAML expects APG777 & APG808 to achieve >$10B non-risk adjusted sales ($7B risk adjusted) based on superior dosing frequency alone and further upside with potential for superior efficacy.