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Hawk’s Nest

Unusual Call Buys in Commercial Real Estate Play Coming Out of Transition Year

by | Aug 21, 2024

Cushman and Wakefield (CWK) unusual flow recently with 10,000 November $15 calls bought to open on trades 8/16 and 8/20 which accounts for 90% of total call open interest and virtually has zero put open interest. Traders paid $0.40 for the calls.

CWK shares inflected out of a downtrend in December 2023 and steadily working higher with a move to the 200-week EMA and out of a key volume zone recently. CWK has also moved back over AVWAP off the 2022 highs and 14.75 a 50% retracement target.

CWK is a leading global commercial real estate services firm managing 6.2 billion square feet of commercial real estate space globally and offering a broad suite of services. It offers services including (i) Property, facilities and project management, (ii) Leasing, (iii) Capital markets and (iv) Valuation.

CWK has a market cap of $2.93B and trades 10.6X Earnings, 9.3X EBITDA and 12X FCF with revenues seen accelerating to 7.2% growth in FY25 with 36.7% EPS growth which should allow for a re-rate higher. The company continues to make progress on reducing leverage on the balance sheet and announced a non-core sale for $130M.

CWK Q2 results beat EPS but missed on revenues with a third consecutive quarter of leasing revenue growth and a meaningful improvement in free cash flow. A more stable rate outlook should allow for better commercial real estate markets into 2025 as CWK works through a transition year in 2024. CWK’s CEO spoke to the “waterfall effect” anticipated with the first rate cut as the inflection point for the CRE transaction recovery.

Analysts have an average target of $13.70 and short interest steady at 4% of the float. RayJay raised its target to $16 after a streak of seven consecutive quarters of US capital markets activity declines was snapped last quarter.