Weekly Market View 1-16-22
S&P Futures (ES_F) had an indecisive week after pulling back from recent highs and bouncing back off VWAP from the October lows. We held trend support from the October lows and also forming another higher low against the December pullback. There’s been a big balance building since the beginning of November with a lot of volume forming between 4720 and 4646.50 and expectation for more chop within this zone while the edges around 4740 and 4540 have been faded. The 55-EMA was supportive last week while the 8-EMA crossed just below the 21-EMA on late in the week, a potentially cautious signal. RSI broke an uptrend on 1/5 and MACD crossed over bearish as well, both showing signs of momentum weakening. Resistance above next week will be at 4690-4695, 4735, and then 4765. Support below the 4605-4595 zone targets 4549.25, 4515, and then 4450.
AAII sentiment for the week ending 1/12 fell to 24.9% from 32.8% prior while bearish responses rose to 38.3% from 33.3%. Neutral responses rose to 36.8% versus 33.9%. Bullish sentiment fell for the second straight week and now at a four-month low, overly pessimistic. NAAIM Exposure fell to 74.78 and remains in a neutral level. Lipper fund flows had $9.9B of inflows to equities last week, the fourth straight week of positive flows (~$56B during that span). As of Friday’s close we had 213 new highs versus 840 new lows, continued weak breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-MA was 36.9% while those above their 200-day was 40.8%, both remaining weak. NYSI remains above its 8-EMA and remains in a bullish trend while NASI moved below its 8-EMA last week in a cautious sign. Cumulative AD remains in a bull trend. NYMO closed at 12.15. CNN Fear and Greed closed at 55, Neutral, and up from 53 last week.