Weekly Market View 11-14-21
The S&P 500 (SPX) traded modestly lower last week, snapping a five-week run higher, as we pulled back to the 8-EMA for the first time in a month. It was an inside week, as well, and the strong close on Friday gave us a doji candle, both overall signs of indecision. The broader picture remains extended as we run into trend resistance from the May and August highs while both RSI and MACD are pulling in a bit from overbought levels but remain elevated. We have a narrow value range to watch with the value high at 4684 and POC at 4674.50. The low is down near 4644.50. To the upside, the key focus will be the 4707.50 with room above to 4747 and then 4795.50. A move lower under 4625.25 has room to 4586.5 and then the October breakout level at 4549.5.
AAII Sentiment for the week ending 11/10 saw bullish responses rise to 48% from 41.5% and back near the high-end of its historical range. Neutral sentiment fell to 28% from 32.5% and bearish sentiment fell to 24% from 26%. NAAIM Exposure fell slightly to 103.69 but remains right at the high-end of the historical range and overexuberant. Lipper Fund flows saw $8.3B of inflows to equities, the sixth straight week of positive flows. As of Friday’s close the NYSE net new highs were 359, declining for the first time in five weeks. The percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA was 71.26, declining modestly for the week, while those above their 200-day was 65.56% and down a bit from last week. Both NASI and NYSI remain elevated and above their respective 8-EMAs. Cumulative AD hit a new high on Monday and then pulled in slightly. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA was 0.47 and continues to fall. NYMO is 3.12 and remains neutral. CNN Fear and Greed is 83 and down slightly from last week at 85.