The SPX closed the holiday shortened week up just about another +1% in a lower volume melt up that saw most of the gains on Monday early on hitting the 4550 SPX level and about 455 on the equivalent SPY. The bullish November surge is now up a remarkable +9% on the S&P with Nasdaq even stronger. The recent grind up beyond 4500 has allowed the key short-term moving averages such as the 8-day EMA to catch up to price and now likely to see the 8 day support any dips into month end closer to 450 SPY. Should that level break unexpectedly there is stronger support at the 446 level where the market gapped up to on CPI Day 11/14. The 21-day EMA also nearing that zone as it rises higher and now have the weekly chart MACD is buy mode as long term momentum has confirmed bullish so the odds have increased that this rally that began in early November has legs and could be a multi month trend move transpiring. The next upside objective for SPX would line up with 4600, the late July highs but the 4515 short call strike of the JPM collar expiring end of year is now likely to provide quite strong support into December triple witching OPEX. One thing to note is that RSI is quite overbought now above 71 and could signal at least some rotation out of large caps that may see SPX pause.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 11/22 showed bullish responses increased slightly to 45.3% from 43.8% prior while bearish responses decreased to 23.6% from 28.1%. Neutral sentiment rose to 31.1% from 28.1%. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 0.3 percentage points to 15.7%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.4% for the third time in 11 weeks. The NAAIM Exposure index increased to 77.95 from 72.06 and back above last quarter’s average of 60.53 but still not overbought. Total equity fund flows (ETF’s and Mutual Funds) for the week ending 11/15 had $+8.9 billion of inflows in equities. Friday’s close saw NYSE new highs at 89 while new lows of 6 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is positive at +38. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is 76.0% while those above their 200-MA was 57.8%. NYSI Summation index is above its 8-MA for a short term buy signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at +65 and getting near Overbought. The cumulative AD line crossed above the 40 EMA short term breadth and now back above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA at 0.77. CNN Fear and Greed index is in the Greed zone at 68 from 58 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.824. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 exhibits fear and tends to mark a low.