Weekly Market View 11-7-21
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed higher for the fifth straight week as we continue to post new record highs. The rally has seen little give since the mid-October base breakout and now without a close below the 8-EMA in seventeen sessions. There are some concerns about being over-extended starting to emerge: we hit our key Fibonacci extension target on Friday from the recent trend, Friday’s high faded off the top channel from the May/Sept. highs, and both RSI and MACD are at their highest level since April. However, as we’ve said before, a trend can remain overbought and over-extended for a long time and we need to see some signs of short-term shift beforehand. A close under the 8-EMA can target 4610.25 and then 4575. The upside target remains near 4840 from the Sept/Oct range.
The latest AAII sentiment survey for the week ending 11/3 showed a small rise in bullish responses to 41.5% from 39.8% while bearish responses fell to 26% from 29.4%. Neutral sentiment rose to 32.5% from 30.7%. Overall, bullish sentiment remains well above the long-term average while bearish sentiment is the lowest in months. NAAIM Exposure climbed again this week to 107.99 and now the highest since 2/17. Lipper had $2.1B of inflows, the fifth straight week of positive flows. As of Friday, the percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA was 72.59%, the best level since June, while those above their 200-day was 66.99%, the best since September. NYSI and NASI closed higher again this week, and both remain well above the 8-EMA. Cumulative AD closed at fresh highs, confirming the recent strength. NYMO remains in a narrow range at 32.74. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA was 0.47 and continues to fall. CNN Fear and Greed was 85, up from 72, and now its highest level of the year.