Weekly Market View 2-6-22
The S&P 500 (SPX) continued its bounce-back last week rising into key short-term resistance while ranges remain wide, and volatility elevated. The 10-day range for the S&P is 114.5 points versus this time last month when it was 68.25. Momentum continues to rebound from oversold levels and MACD had a bullish cross on Wednesday. There’s a big confluence of resistance above including the 61.8% Fibonacci of the fall at 4580, the 55-EMA at 4571, the low-end of January value at 4560 and the 21-EMA near Friday’s high at 4520. VWAP from the January high is also at 4524.75 and spot we were unable to push back above late in the week. A successful breakout targets 4686.50. Support below is at the prior balance breakout at 4425-4415, February VPOC at 4402.75, 4390, and then 4325 which is VPOC of the range from 1/24 to 1/31.
AAII sentiment for the week ending 2/2 showed bulls up to 26.5% vs 23.1% prior while bears fell to 43.7% vs 52.9% but remain elevated. Neutral sentiment was 29.9% vs 23.9% prior. NAAIM Exposure rose slightly to 62.54 vs 53.39 prior and remains neutral. Lipper Fund Flows had $5.2B of outflows from equities, the third straight week of outflows. As of Friday’s close, there were 130 new highs vs 544 new lows, continued weak breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-MA was 24.9% while those above their 200-day was 27.7%, both remain overly pessimistic. NYSI Summation fell for the week and remains well below its 8-EMA in a cautious signal. NASI rebounded a little but remains below its 8-EMA as well. Cumulative AD fell into the close of the week and remains in a sell signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA was 0.75 and remains overly fearful. NYMO closed the week at -21.69. CNN Fear and Greed closed at 35, down from 36 last week and 54 a month ago.