Weekly Market View 3-6-22
It was a quieter week for S&P Futures (ES_F) which finished lower for the week, albeit largely rangebound between 4280 and 4385. Short-term momentum remains cautious with the declining 21-EMA a headwind all week but the 8-day is starting to flatten out and we continue to form a series of higher lows on the shorter-term timeframe. Momentum is mixed with MACD recently crossing over bullish but unable to follow-through while RSI is back near the 50-level but starting to roll over. We continue to trade in a channel lower from the January highs but back above the mid-point of the range and room up to 4415 and then breakout of the pattern with upside targets of 4525-4550. There’s also a notable high-volume node at 4570. A move lower has support at 4235 and then 4150. The channel low would target 4050.
AAII sentiment for the week ending 3/2 showed bulls rise to 30.4% from 23.4% prior and bears fall to 41.4% from 53.7%. Neutral sentiment rose to 28.2% from 22.9%. Optimism overall is nearing its highest levels of the year but remains well below average. NAAIM Exposure fell to 30.3 vs 44.41 prior and now the lowest since April 2020 when it hit 28.71. Lipper Fund flows had $1.8B of inflows to equities, the fourth straight week of positive flows. As of Friday’s close there were 278 new highs versus 911 new lows, weaker breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-MA was 27.9% while those above their 200-MA was 26.9%, both remain well below bullish levels. NYSE Summation was -679 and sitting right at the 8-EMA, so potential to watch for a push and sustained move above this week. NASI closed right on its 8-EMA also, so another inflection point for sentiment. Cumulative AD remains in a bear trend and the 8-/21-week EMA also in a bear trend. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA closed at 0.59 and remains neutral overall. CNN Fear and Greed closed at 17 and down from 33 last week.