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Weekly Market View 4-16-2023

Weekly Market View 4-16-2023

by | Apr 16, 2023 | Weekly Market View

The SPX closed the week slightly higher but pulled back Friday off the marginal new high it made near 4160 and overall, another smaller range week as volatility came in after key events. With OPEX week and Tax Day on deck its normally a seasonally bullish time but with Friday’s rejection at highs its possible prices pullback to retest the rising 21 EMA closer to 4050-70 before resuming the trend higher into 4200 and beyond most likely. Earnings will take a front seat as well so perhaps looking for a early week dip ahead of late April Tech earnings may setup the better buying opportunity but so far SPX remains above the 8 day EMA showing buyers in control as breadth expands and VIX sinks further showing the market is more into positive drift mode likely ahead of the next FOMC meeting in early May. Resistance is stiff at 4200 but the next level above would target 4225 with eventually the 4300 level being a longer term objective.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 4/12 showed bullish responses fall to 26.1% from 33.3% prior while bearish responses fell to 34.5% from 35.0%. Neutral sentiment rose sharply to 39.5% from 31.6%. Pessimism among individual investors has slightly decreased but remains above average for the eighth consecutive week. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 6.7 percentage points to –8.4%. This puts the bull-bear spread back at an unusually low level. The NAAIM Exposure index increased to 58.71 from 72.89 and is back below last quarter’s average of 63.74. Lipper fund flows for the week ending 4/12 had $53M of inflows in equities. Friday’s close saw NYSE new highs at 46 while new lows of 40 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is positive again at +15. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is at 54.2% while those above their 200-MA was 60.2%. NYSI and NASI Summation indexes are above their 8-MA and in a short term buy signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at +33 and back to a Neutral zone. The cumulative AD line is above the 40 EMA short term trend and back above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA at 0.69 and falling. CNN Fear and Greed index is in Greed zone at 67 from 58 last week. VIX/VXV ratio is back down to 0.852, which measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility.