Weekly Market View 4-17-22
The S&P (SPX) continued to pullback this week tagging the 50% retracement of the rally off the 3/14 lows while struggling to hold the top of monthly value. There’s a narrow channel forming back into some key short-term support after a strong close to March — we held the key 4385 level which is the top of the prior balance range as well as VWAP off of the 2/24 open when the Russian invasion of Ukraine first started. But, the short-term trend has been bearish, overall, with the declining 8- and 21-EMA acting as a brick wall throughout the week and until we can close above those levels at 4445-4455, weakness can continue. Monthly VPOC is down near 4265 while the low-end of March value is at 4305. A breakout above those key moving averages has room up to 4550. Momentum has reset with MACD back near zero and RSI under 45 but neither in an outright bearish trend and some modest strength could see them inflect higher again and set up for a nice run.
AAII sentiment for the week ending 4/13 showed a big drop again in bulls to 15.8% from 24.7% prior while bears rose to 48.4% from 41.4%. Neutral sentiment rose to 35.7%. This is the lowest bullish sentiment since 1992 and just the tenth week since 1987 when bulls were below 16%. NAAIM Exposure fell to 63.29 from 83.41, a neutral reading. Lipper Fund flows had $9.6B in outflows from equities, the biggest exodus from stocks in over six weeks. As of Friday’s close there were 283 new highs versus 544 new lows, weak breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-MA was 38.6% while those above their 200-MA was 30.1% and remains weak. NYSI closed the week at -185 and below its 8-EMA after crossing under at the start of the week in a cautious sign. NASI has also crossed below its 8-EMA. CBOE Equity P/C ratio 50-MA remains complacent at 0.50. Cumulative AD remains in a bearish trend. CNN Fear and Greed closed the week at 45 which is down from 46 the week prior.