Weekly Market View 5-1-22
The S&P 500 (SPX) fell for the fourth straight week and finished April with the worst single-month performance since March 2020 down over 8.5%. We closed the week just above the 2/24 lows and edge of a multi-month balance with potential for a big move in either direction – either initiative sellers force us out of balance or responsive buyers push us back us back higher. Despite the broader bearish context, momentum indicators are nearing oversold levels, so we could see a snapback rally into an early flush next week under 4115. Upside targets include 4185, 4250, and then 4300. If we see sustained, broad-based selling under the February lows, we have potential to fade into a large volume gap back to 3,980. Other areas of support include 4060 and 4000.
AAII Sentiment for the week ending 4/27 saw bullish responses fall to 16.4% from 18.9% while bearish responses rose to 59.4% from 43.9% prior. Neutral sentiment was 24.2%. This is the highest level of bearishness for stocks since March 2009. NAAIM Exposure fell to 46.25 from 74.05 prior and nearing extreme levels of pessimism. Lipper Fund flows had $8.8B of outflows from equities, the fourth straight week of outflows from stocks. As of Friday’s close there were 41 new highs versus 1,013 new lows, very weak breadth again. The percentage of stocks above their 50-MA fell to 19.7% while those above their 200-day fell to 21.5%, both nearing extremes. NYSI continues to fall to -486 and remains well below the 8-EMA while NASI is also below its 8-EMA. Cumulative AD continues to be in an overall bearish trend. NYMO closed at -45.92 which is low but not yet near an extreme. CNN Fear and Greed closed at 27 and down from 40 last week.