Weekly Market View 5-22-22
The S&P 500 (SPX) fell for the seventh straight week, the worst losing streak in over a decade, while the Dow was down for the eight straight week for the first time since 1923. Friday’s intraday low as down as much as 2.3% which put the index in a bear market but the strong close put us just 19% from the prior highs. The bounce came at a big spot at 3840 which is the first test of VWAP from the March 2020 lows in over two years. We also filled a low-volume gap and back to a high-volume node from late 2020. If we bounce here, notable areas of interest above include the 8-EMA at 3975, the 21-EMA and top of the prior range at 4115, and then 4160-4190. A move lower targets 3730, 3700, and then 3630. Momentum is near extreme oversold ranges and potential to see bullish moves higher with some strength in the indices.
AAII sentiment for the week ending 5/18 saw bulls rise to 26% from 24.3% while bearish responses rose to 50.4% from 49% prior. Neutral sentiment fell to 23.6% from 26.6%. Overall, not a huge move in sentiment this week on either the bull or bear lines. NAAIM Exposure fell again to 19.51 from 24.31 prior and remains at the lowest level since the pandemic lows in 2020. Lipper Fund flows had $3.2B in outflows from equities, almost two straight months of outflows. As of Friday’s close there were 41 new highs versus 1,018 new lows, continued weak breadth. The percentage of stocks below their 50-MA is 14.3% while those below their 200-MA was 17%, both hitting extremes. NYSI and NASI both flattened out this week and sit just below their 8-EMA, so potential to see a bullish crossover soon. Cumulative AD remains in a bear trend. CNN Fear and Greed fell to 11 on Friday, down from 12 last week.