Technical Market View

The SPX closed a narrow range week of expiration mostly unchanged overall down just 10 points on the week though faded from highs after starting Monday at a 6050 high print and seeing a generally choppy week of triple witching expiration as expected. The 6000 level was a magnet for most days while ultimately seeing Friday strength get sold into a close under 6k and suggesting some potential to pullback this coming week towards a test of the key 5900 level which would mark stronger support based on gamma and the JPM collar strike at that level and now expiring in a week so it can be a magnet. Also coming off a record OPEX will see a lot of call gamma come off the board which doesn’t exactly mean stocks need to sell off but more so potential for an increase in relative volatility away from the recent pin. As long as SPX continues to hold above 5900 on a weekly closing basis it still favors the eventual upside target of new highs above 6150 which are just a few percent away and seasonally, the market sees a strong early July timeframe. However, this year being a wildcard with potential tariff news in play to remember. MACD did see a bearish cross lower on the daily timeframe but still solidly bullish on the long-term weekly chart. Breadth has also started to fade the past few days suggesting more of a change to see that 5900 test possible but any calming of Mideast tensions and/or a tariff deal could easily snap prices right back up over 6000 which would be the line in sand for further upside.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 6/18 showed bullish responses fall to 33.2% from 36.7% prior while bearish responses rose to 41.4% from 33.6%. Neutral sentiment fell to 25.4% from 29.7%. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 11.8 percentage points to 3.1%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 19th time in 21 weeks. The NAAIM Exposure index jumped to 94.09 from 82.66 last week, now hitting the highest levels of 2025 and well above last quarter’s average of 72.50. Total equity fund flows for the week ending 6/11 had $-19 billion in outflows in equities. The prior day’s close saw NYSE new highs at 56, while new lows at 43 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is positive at +29. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA fell to 67.2% while those above 200-MA was 49.4%. NYSI Summation index crossed back below its 8-MA for a short-term bearish signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at -18 and in the Neutral zone short term. The cumulative AD line is still near highs above the 40 EMA short term breadth trend and above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA is at 0.58 in a Neutral zone. CNN Fear and Greed index is in the Neutral zone at 55 from 60 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.917, under the 1.0 level of inversion. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 shows fear and can mark a low.