The SPX closed strong at highs of the quarter at 4450 after the recent pullback found support right where it should have between the 8/21 EMA’s and RSI bouncing off the 55 level. SPX has next resistance at 4500 which is a large round number but also the mid-April 2022 highs that started a large selloff last year and now having recovered nearly all of that move is a positive sign as well as surpassing the big picture 61.8% fib retrace on the weekly chart. Support is strong below at 4400 now being near the 8 EMA as it rises higher, and the 21 EMA is at 4340 for reference on any dips into the first part of July those key levels should hold as a holiday shortened week is on deck and lower volatility and volumes are likely. The other key factor is the most recent rally has started to show the 200-day MA curl higher and rise, which is always a good confirming sign after a new bull market has begun.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 6/28 showed bullish responses fell to 41.9% from 42.9% prior while bearish responses went to 27.5% from 27.8%. Neutral sentiment rose to 30.6% from 29.4%. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 0.6 percentage points to 14.5%. The bull-bear spread has been above its historical average of 6.4% for four consecutive weeks. The NAAIM Exposure index decreased to 75.93 from 83.60 and still well above last quarter’s average of 63.74. Lipper fund flows for the week ending 6/28 had $2.8B of inflows in equities. Friday’s close saw NYSE new highs surge to 225 while new lows of 16 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is positive at +78. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is 74.0% while those above their 200-MA was 66.2%. NYSI and NASI Summation indexes on Friday both crossed back above 8-EMA and in a short term buy signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at +44.7 and in a Neutral zone. The cumulative AD line rebounded off the 40 EMA short term breadth trend and surged higher and also above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA at 0.63. CNN Fear and Greed index is in Extreme Greed zone at 80 from 74 last week. VIX/VXV ratio is bouncing back to 0.848, which measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility.