Weekly Market View 9-5-21
It was a narrow week of trading for the S&P 500 (SPX) as we eked out another small gain and hit fresh highs on Friday after the jobs report. We closed above the 8-EMA again and without more evidence of larger sellers taking control, the path of least resistance remains higher. Our profile last week was fairly balanced. We closed just below the upper value for the week at 4534.75 and above the POC at 4527 that served as a nice support bounce over the last two sessions. The brief dip from the jobs number held the lower value area at 4519 which also aligns with VWAP from the 8/26 lows, a key spot to watch next week if we get a pullback. A move under has VWAP from the 8/19 low at 4484 which also aligns with POC from the prior week which has been untested and a logical spot to retrace back. The 4465.75 level is a very important spot with a low-volume gap under to 4400. A move higher needs to see strength and follow-through above 4540.5 and has a measured target out to 4572.5.
AAII Sentiment for the week ending 9/1 rose to 43.4% vs 39.6% prior with bearish sentiment also inching higher to 33.3% vs 33% prior. Neutral sentiment fell to 23.2% from 27.5%. Bullish sentiment the biggest notable of the week rising to a new two-month high and second straight week above the long-term average. NAAIM Exposure rose slightly to 93.95 and remains elevated in a cautious signal. Lipper Fund flows had $12.7B of inflows to equities this week, the biggest inflow in ten weeks after the more dovish remarks from Powell. As of Friday’s close there were 561 new highs vs just 39 new lows, very strong breadth. The percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA was 59.1% while those above their 200-day was 61%, both improving. NYSI continued to rise this week and now firmly back above its 8-EMA. NASI continued its strength and now almost two weeks trading above its 8-EMA. Cumulative AD rose to just shy of new highs. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA was 0.506 and remains elevated. CNN Fear and Greed closed at 54, Neutral, and up from 50 a week ago.