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Management Commentary 12-1-2021

by | Dec 1, 2021

Zebra Tech (ZBRA) at Stephens Investment Conference on its vision…. “So Enterprise Asset Intelligence is how we’ve kind of branded our vision. We came up with that in 2014 when we did the enterprise acquisition or the Enterprise business, but to explain what the new business also what the vision for the new business was.  At a high level, we talked about that as being when every asset, when every frontline worker is connected, visible and optimally utilized. So this is — you can think of us now as a vertical workflow company. So we have solutions that basically solve vertical workflows where we tended to historically be more of a device company. We often get the question around what inning are we in? It’s a harder question to answer than you might think. You use a baseball analogy of inning. I said it’s more like — I’m not sure if we have any cricket fans, we do cricket test measures can go on for days and there’s no end. So you never quite know how many innings there are, but I make the analogy of when we — if you go back to 2015 and what we did in mobile computing in retail at that point, we’re starting to migrate towards Android. We — what we believe that the end game at that point would have been we probably achieved by 2017.  So at that point, we had average will be 7 or 8 devices in a store running in a retail store, running maybe 3, 4 applications. Today, it will be routinely 80 devices running 75, 80 applications. We did not have any expectation of how far this could go, and I think that this is kind of the same today. I’m not quite sure that what the end is. So we certainly believe that there’s plenty of runway to expand the overall market and how we address this. And we’ve expanded with a lot of new capabilities and use cases over time that further kind of expands the opportunity with the TAM for us.”

American Tower (AMT) at Wells Fargo TMT Conference on its belief in the Edge…. “I guess, I would start by just highlighting the fact that we are strong believers in the edge and edge computing and anticipate that it will really be driven by a sharp increase in 5G-driven data consumption. We also think that the idea of cloud native networks is taking hold, and that will include mobile networks at some point, a lot of the applications that mobile users will want to access will be hosted in the cloud. So getting that mobile network access through the cloud. So, we’ve learned an awful lot there. And our conviction around an eventual push to the edge is stronger today than it was a year ago. And that — those are some of the things that kind of led us to announce that we’re acquiring CoreSite.  It’s a good financial transaction, but it also gives us that optionality around continuing to try to push and drive business to our distributed assets, our tower assets, as we see this emergence of edge. And the edge doesn’t just come from mobile networks in, in terms of the edge access and that lower latency. But it’s also going to be the cloud providers trying to distribute their cloud access points further beyond the major metro areas around the country and get that more distributed out into the, deeper into the communities that they — where their customers reside.”

KLA Corp (KLAC) at Wells Fargo TMT Conference on the WFE opportunity with less centralization of fabs globally…. “I think as you mentioned, I think we’re kind of in the early innings of some of this regionalization activities we’re engaged with several customers and their plans to begin to start up those factories. But if you look at our installed base growth over the last decade, in most cases, it was shipments to established regions and again, in most cases, into sort of mega fabs. And there was clearly a benefit to our customers in terms of time to market, but also cost advantages for our customers and for KLA in terms of just adding to existing infrastructure. And so there is natural leverage in the model. As we begin to expand to some of these new geographies, in most cases, our customers are starting from scratch. And so they are very focused on just getting the shells built and then everything related to getting a factory up and running. So their dependence on KLA service to make sure that we can get the tools shipped, installed and at production levels, even they’re really depending on us to do that. And so it is a great opportunity for us. It’s a challenge. I mean we have to — hiring folks in these new locations, potentially moving resources from the home location to the new location to maintain continuity and sort of culture, setting up logistics and warehouses. There’s a lot of work to be done. But I think our experience has been that when customers expand out there outside of their own geography, service intensity is certainly equal to, and in most cases, increases as we move into the new location.”

NXP Semi (NXPI) at CSFB Tech Conference on new product growth buckets…. “So let’s start with RADAR. RADAR today is $600 million. This has grown to $1.1 billion in 2024. We are designed in the top 20 of 20 OEMs. We are a leader in the 77 gigahertz in that space. Today, on average, there’s one node in the car in 2021. In 2024, it will be 2. In 2027, it will be 3. And beyond that, it will be even 4 or 5 or 6 as we continue to move up. So we’re very excited about that business. It’s growing at a compound annual growth rate of 20% to 25%. Then if we go to electrification, which is kind of linked to what we’re seeing in the xEV market. And this is where we talk about Battery Management Systems. And we are basically in the top 16 of 20 OEMs in that space. And then we introduced the e-motor control of the inverters, which is still kind of small, but it’s just starting to grow. And we are in the top 9 of 20 OEM space there. It’s an exciting business. It’s early innings. That business is $200 million today, growing to over $500 million in 2024. So we’re excited about that. Another area that we went into more details, which is much more complex is the car architecture so the processors. And my colleague, Henri talked about this business where I think today, it’s around $1.7 billion. We are a market leader with over 30% market share in that business and that’s going to grow to $2.3 billion. But what he shared with you is this new platform on 16 fintech called S32. And that part of the business is really early. It’s a couple of hundred million today, growing at 25% compound annual growth rate through the cycle to 2024. And really, he go on to talk about the growth after 2024 because that’s when it really takes off there. But that’s — we’ll get to 5-nanometer, I think we start sampling in 2024.”

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