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The SPX closed the week strong into fresh highs on the year with a convincing breakout above the 4225 level and now approaching the 4300 highs from last August with RSI confirming the move higher as well to recent highs. Support is holding well each time the 8 EMA is tested recently and now being at 4200 roughly should signify a key line in sand with two weeks until a large June quad witching OPEX and FOMC meeting the same week. The 55-day MA at 4125 would be the next downside support, a level that has held price since climbing above it in early April. SPX has a bullish weekly chart as well with MACD and RSI in bull mode pointing to momentum on the bull’s side now as the recent 21/55 EMA weekly cross confirms strength. The 4311 level represents a big 61.8% fib retracement from the all-time highs to the bear market lows so will be a key level to watch and see how prices react to.
AAII sentiment for the week ending 5/31 showed bullish responses rise to 29.1% from 27.4% prior while bearish responses fell to 36.8% from 39.7%. Neutral sentiment rose to 34.1% from 32.9%. This keeps optimism within its typical range for just the fourth time in the last 15 weeks. Nonetheless, bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 37.5% for the 78th time out of the last 80 weeks. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased to –7.8% after being unusually low for the last five weeks. The NAAIM Exposure index decreased to 53.92 from 65.51 and is still below last quarter’s average of 63.74. Lipper fund flows for the week ending 5/31 had $2.2B of inflows in equities. Friday’s close saw NYSE new highs at 88 while new lows of 15 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is at -27. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is 52.4% while those above their 200-MA was 53.0%. NYSI and NASI Summation indexes closed Friday with a bull cross above 8-MA and in a short term buy signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at +42 and in a Neutral zone but at 6-week highs. The cumulative AD line is back over the 40 EMA short term trend and the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA at 0.68. CNN Fear and Greed index is in Greed zone at 65 from 66 last week. VIX/VXV ratio is back down to 6 months lows to 0.815, which measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility.
CyberArk (CYBR) on 4/17 with an unusual buy of 1000 December 2024 $160/$230 call spreads and a lot of earnings reports due from the group the next two weeks while M&A remains a key theme to the group.
CYBR shares are on a third week of a rally working over VWAP from record highs, triggering a bull weekly MACD cross and weekly RSI to the highest level in 18-months while shares show a major long-term trend inflection. The $160 level is the next challenge and above that the $120/$160 range break measures to $200. Shares are also working on a massive monthly bull engulfing candle.
Procore (PCOR) a 2021 IPO and interesting software business is consolidating above its monthly value breakout and key long-term VPOC while just under VWAP from its record highs. Shares are in a narrow range but above $61 should allow for a move to upper value at $68.70.
Stocks were at new highs into the open Friday on the debt ceiling
deal passing the Senate, likelihood of a Fed pause in June and talks of China stimulus.
Weakness in the USD boosted commodities for a second day. The US Jobs Report once
again came in very strong exceeding expectations though the Unemployment Rate
tricked higher. We saw a rotation trade back to cyclicals/macro names and away from
Tech as the new month started. Metals, Banks and Energy were all very strong to the
upside along with rebounds in Retail and Housing. It was another trend-up session for
breadth with major accumulation this week and volatility collapsed. The S&P pushed
up to its 61.8% Fibonacci target after a major breakout this week as it looks to close
the gap with the Nasdaq performance. The schedule is quiet next week and most of
the focus now on the June Fed Meeting during OpEx week.
The earnings schedule is extremely quiet next week with FERG, SJM,
CPB, DOCU, TTC, MTN, CASY, CIEN, SMAR, HCP, GTLB, SAIC, THO highlights. The week
kicks off with key Services ISM and Factory Orders data and then the economic
schedule also lacks any major catalysts. Conference season will remain in full swing
with companies providing updates into Q2 reporting season.
We saw Megacap Tech put sellers moved to Dec. 2025 in AMZN, NVDA, TSLA and META. We also saw some profit taking in Tech calls. Beaten up industrial Metals plays VALE, CLF, FCX each saw bullish options action. We saw sentiment shift a bit in consumer discretionary with bull flow coming into beaten up leaders like WYNN, SBUX, TGT. We saw some early bullish flow move into Banks. We also saw return of ITM January call buys in gold miners AU, GFI. There also were large July opening put sales in beat up Industrials like CAT, UPS.
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