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The SPX had a very narrow range week overall even with even inflation data released but Tech leadership in the Nasdaq kept a bid underneath the market and the SPX was able to hold the 21 EMA on multiple attempts to break lower, closing Friday just above the key support near 4115. Breadth is weakening broadly but the start of options expiration week tends to be quite bullish and with the VIX options expiring after Tuesday it could be an early week rebound met with midweek sellers if the 4150-4200 cannot be breached by buyers. Once this range breaks however, its likely to bring the next 100 point move in either direction. The bullish window of May OPEX is closing so a slip below the key gamma line of 4100 on the SPX likely sees 4000 retested as the larger cap Tech weights could really drag the markets south quickly. The 4000 level is strong support below while the 200 day MA just under at 3975 currently.
Market Sentiment/Breadth
AAII sentiment for the week ending 5/10 showed bullish responses jump to 29.4% from 24.1% prior while bearish responses fell to 41.2% from 44.9%. Neutral sentiment fell to 29.4% from 31.0%. Optimism continues to be at a low level but is no longer unusually low. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) improved to –11.8% but remained unusually low for the third consecutive week. The NAAIM Exposure index decreased to 65.22 from 67.01 and is just above last quarter’s average of 63.74. Lipper fund flows for the week ending 5/10 had $3.7B of outflows in equities, the 4th straight week of outflows. Friday’s close saw NYSE new highs at 50 while new lows of 118 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is at -45. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is 47.6% while those above their 200-MA was 48.8%. NYSI and NASI Summation indexes are still below their 8-MA and in a short term sell signal but NASI trying to curl higher. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at -30 and in a Neutral zone. The cumulative AD line is slightly below the 40 EMA short term trend and right near the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA at 0.70. CNN Fear and Greed index is in Greed zone at 58 from 59 last week. VIX/VXV ratio is back down to 6 months lows to 0.824, which measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility.
Open
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Alerts
CyberArk (CYBR) on 4/17 with an unusual buy of 1000 December 2024 $160/$230 call spreads and a lot of earnings reports due from the group the next two weeks while M&A remains a key theme to the group.
CYBR shares are on a third week of a rally working over VWAP from record highs, triggering a bull weekly MACD cross and weekly RSI to the highest level in 18-months while shares show a major long-term trend inflection. The $160 level is the next challenge and above that the $120/$160 range break measures to $200. Shares are also working on a massive monthly bull engulfing candle.
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Set-Ups
Procore (PCOR) a 2021 IPO and interesting software business is consolidating above its monthly value breakout and key long-term VPOC while just under VWAP from its record highs. Shares are in a narrow range but above $61 should allow for a move to upper value at $68.70.
Market
Talk
Stocks were higher into the open as the USD continued to rally andthe Debt Ceiling remained the key focus as well as the momentum in large cap Techstocks. In morning data, Consumer Sentiment for April came in very weak missingexpectations while inflation expectations surged higher and markets sold off from early highs. Following a choppy opening hour breadth once again resolved lower asselling picked up. Solar led strength while most all other sectors were lower withweakness seen the most in Software, Biotech and Retail. The schedule even grows quieter next week, Debt Ceiling in focus, and leads into May OpEx to close the week.
With NYSI in bear mode and S&P under 8/21 moving averages, caution remains key.
Earnings reports slow down considerably with top reports coming from WMT, HD, BABA, CSCO, DE, AMAT, TJX, TGT, SNPS, SE, BIDU, ROST, KEYS, TTWO, SQM, DT, GRAB, TME. Next Tuesday we get Retail Sales and Industrial
Production and Philly Fed on Thursday, otherwise a quiet Macro schedule.
Flow
Recap/
Highlights
We saw massive opening put sales at-the-money for January 2024 in NVDA, META. We had more opening sellers in June strangles for Financials with inflated volatility like COOP. CMA and ZION. : China EV put buyers were at it again in LI and NIO. Otherwise action fairly quiet, some bull flow into MGM, MLCO into earnings across the group. Thursday Put buyers focused on some high valuation names like APP, MDB, ZS, ABNB. No major new trends emerged on a slower Friday of flows, some bullish action in Transports leaders BA, UPS.
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