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Technical Market View
The SPX closed nearly unchanged for the week after an early week pullback Monday saw buyers come in near the 8 EMA near 6200 and that level should be a key line in sand going into this week’s expiration for July. Prices continue to show strength, riding the 8 EMA higher and breadth expanding further showing the strength of this rally. However, this week could close a short-term window of strength with the monthly OPEX potentially being a turning point with VIX options also expiring Wednesday at the open, just a day after CPI comes out so a lot on deck this week. Along with that will be the start of earnings season with banks reporting as well as NFLX, the first mega cap leader. The theme around last quarter’s earnings season was fearful sentiment and companies giving uncertain guidance but now should be trickier into the summer earnings as companies may give a better outlook of whether they will pass on tariff costs or not to the customer. Overall, the market is healthy, and the recent two-week rally has cleared that formed high from back in Feb at 6150 but prices on the SPX seem to be stuck at 6300 currently while Nasdaq and Russell have shown larger upside power. First support on a pullback from here would be at 6200 with the 21 EMA a larger level to watch for at 6145. Any close below that would likely see a swift correction back to the 6000 large round number support which lines up with the one-year point of control on the volume profile and would equate to a modest pullback of just under 5%.
Market Sentiment/Breadth
AAII sentiment for the week ending 7/9 showed bullish responses fell to 41.4% from 45.0% prior while bearish responses rose to 35.6% from 33.1%. Neutral sentiment rose to 23.0% from 21.9%. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 6.2 percentage points to 5.7%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 22nd time in 23 weeks. The NAAIM Exposure index fell to 86.28 from 99.30 last week, above last quarter’s average of 72.50 but now slightly off the recent high. Total equity fund flows for the week ending 7/2 had $-26.8 billion in outflows in equities. The prior day’s close saw NYSE new highs at 61, while new lows at 17 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is positive at +100. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA fell to 68.4% while those above 200-MA was 62.4%. NYSI Summation index is firmly above its 8-MA for a short-term bullish signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at +8 and is now back to Neutral short term. The cumulative AD line is making all time new highs above the 40 EMA short term breadth trend and above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA is at 0.56 and falling but still in a Neutral zone. CNN Fear and Greed index is in the Extreme Greed zone at 75 from 78 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.847, with 0.80 often a lower extreme. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 shows fear and can mark a low.
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Alerts
WEAV impressive trend, name that has 7000 February $15 calls in open interest from late October action at $1/contract
WEAV develops a customer communication platform for service-based businesses that offers voice, short message service, email and marketing services to dental, optometry, medical, and veterinary offices
WEAV has $1.16B market cap and trades 4.9X EV/Sales with revenues seen rising 15%+ annually each of the next two years. WEAV is levered to small and medium-sized healthcare practices with its current focus a $7B TAM, very niche business. The integration of fintech solutions like payment processing; buy now, pay over time; and payment plans is a natural progression to help practitioners accelerate collections and increase the acceptance rates of additional services.
WEAV recently launched Weave Platform which it calls the most significant product launch in the company’s history, at the forefront of administrative AI solutions for healthcare practices and an AI-powered Weave Assistant is integrated throughout the new platform. AI tools could automate nearly 45% of administrative tasks in the healthcare sector, potentially saving $150 billion annually. Weave Assistant helps craft personalized responses to reviews, write professional-branded e-mails, and automate tasks like message tagging and voicemail transcriptions. Our new call intelligence product leverages a custom AI model to extract actionable insights from call data.
Chart
Set-Ups
FactSet (FDS) long-time quality name w/ nice weekly 200-week EMA base now breaking over key levels with RSI and MACD bull triggers
Market
Talk
Stocks gapped up again Friday ahead of PCE inflation data that came in a tick higher while May personal income and spending declined which could be a drag on Q2 GDP forecasts and likely consumer stocks. Markets faded slightly from premarket highs while breadth opened the day very strong again and saw Tech names gather steam higher. The curious thing was a VIX that was not down much at all even with the SPX hitting new highs and that played out into midday with breadth fading and the market sinking back to a gap fill on a Trump landmine post saying they have stopped negotiations with Canada. Overall markets held the flat line into the close and ended a strong week with a bit of profit taking as quarter end approaches Monday.
What’s On Tap: Markets have a holiday shortened week upcoming with the July 4th holiday on Friday. The final day of the second quarter is Monday while the main event of the week will be the monthly jobs report due out Thursday. Fed Chair Powell is also due to speak at a panel discussion in Europe while earnings quiet down with just STZ reporting.
Flow
Recap/
Highlights
The week of 6/22 saw the strong early week bullish reversal feature Tech Growth Names like CRDO, ANET, ARM, SNOW, ORCL seeing continued long dated call buyers. Industrials like CR, WWD, EMR, that have rallied hard saw adjustments rolling July calls to August. Financials saw aggressive bullish flow continue with names like C, WFC, JPM, TFC, GS, V all seeing call buyers ahead of bank stress test results. The end of week saw alot of profit taking in large call positions in June and Dec 2026 expirations that have held since last summer in key growth names like ARM, AMD, PYPL, CRM.
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