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Technical Market View
The SPX closed a narrow range week of expiration mostly unchanged overall down just 10 points on the week though faded from highs after starting Monday at a 6050 high print and seeing a generally choppy week of triple witching expiration as expected. The 6000 level was a magnet for most days while ultimately seeing Friday strength get sold into a close under 6k and suggesting some potential to pullback this coming week towards a test of the key 5900 level which would mark stronger support based on gamma and the JPM collar strike at that level and now expiring in a week so it can be a magnet. Also coming off a record OPEX will see a lot of call gamma come off the board which doesn’t exactly mean stocks need to sell off but more so potential for an increase in relative volatility away from the recent pin. As long as SPX continues to hold above 5900 on a weekly closing basis it still favors the eventual upside target of new highs above 6150 which are just a few percent away and seasonally, the market sees a strong early July timeframe. However, this year being a wildcard with potential tariff news in play to remember. MACD did see a bearish cross lower on the daily timeframe but still solidly bullish on the long-term weekly chart. Breadth has also started to fade the past few days suggesting more of a change to see that 5900 test possible but any calming of Mideast tensions and/or a tariff deal could easily snap prices right back up over 6000 which would be the line in sand for further upside.
Market Sentiment/Breadth
AAII sentiment for the week ending 6/18 showed bullish responses fall to 33.2% from 36.7% prior while bearish responses rose to 41.4% from 33.6%. Neutral sentiment fell to 25.4% from 29.7%. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 11.8 percentage points to 3.1%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 19th time in 21 weeks. The NAAIM Exposure index jumped to 94.09 from 82.66 last week, now hitting the highest levels of 2025 and well above last quarter’s average of 72.50. Total equity fund flows for the week ending 6/11 had $-19 billion in outflows in equities. The prior day’s close saw NYSE new highs at 56, while new lows at 43 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is positive at +29. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA fell to 67.2% while those above 200-MA was 49.4%. NYSI Summation index crossed back below its 8-MA for a short-term bearish signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at -18 and in the Neutral zone short term. The cumulative AD line is still near highs above the 40 EMA short term breadth trend and above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA is at 0.58 in a Neutral zone. CNN Fear and Greed index is in the Neutral zone at 55 from 60 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.917, under the 1.0 level of inversion. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 shows fear and can mark a low.
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Alerts
WEAV impressive trend, name that has 7000 February $15 calls in open interest from late October action at $1/contract
WEAV develops a customer communication platform for service-based businesses that offers voice, short message service, email and marketing services to dental, optometry, medical, and veterinary offices
WEAV has $1.16B market cap and trades 4.9X EV/Sales with revenues seen rising 15%+ annually each of the next two years. WEAV is levered to small and medium-sized healthcare practices with its current focus a $7B TAM, very niche business. The integration of fintech solutions like payment processing; buy now, pay over time; and payment plans is a natural progression to help practitioners accelerate collections and increase the acceptance rates of additional services.
WEAV recently launched Weave Platform which it calls the most significant product launch in the company’s history, at the forefront of administrative AI solutions for healthcare practices and an AI-powered Weave Assistant is integrated throughout the new platform. AI tools could automate nearly 45% of administrative tasks in the healthcare sector, potentially saving $150 billion annually. Weave Assistant helps craft personalized responses to reviews, write professional-branded e-mails, and automate tasks like message tagging and voicemail transcriptions. Our new call intelligence product leverages a custom AI model to extract actionable insights from call data.
Chart
Set-Ups
FactSet (FDS) long-time quality name w/ nice weekly 200-week EMA base now breaking over key levels with RSI and MACD bull triggers
Market
Talk
Stocks opened expiration Friday on a stronger note back near the SPX 6000 key strike price with Russell small caps outperforming early on up over 1%. Gold and silver sold off while Bitcoin held firm up over 2% in the morning session. Tensions cooled over Iran/Israel as oil prices were unchanged early on. Philly Fed Manufacturing came in weaker than expectations while Fed speaker Waller (a voter) said the Fed should think about cutting rates in July and thinks tariffs are not going to cause persistent inflation. Waller is also on Trump’s short list to be next Fed Chair in 2026. The market quickly faded into a gap fill in the first hour and then tested lower into the 5950 SPX region where small support was seen for a choppy expiration Friday overall but forming a bearish candle suggesting a pullback into quarter end would not be surprising based on seasonality.
Semiconductor stocks were undercut by a Wall Street Journal report that the Trump administration is planning to revoke waivers that allow chip companies to use American chipmaking technology in China. The stock market was unable to sustain the positive demeanor seen at today’s open, as many stocks succumbed to some profit-taking interest.
What’s On Tap: The schedule is quiet into the end of Q2 with a few earnings reports coming from MU, NKE, PAYX, FDX, CCL, GIS, MKC, FDS, JEF, SNX, AYI, CMC. The week kicks off with June Flash PMIs and then on Thursday Durable Goods and GDP data followed by Friday’s Income/Spending numbers and Consumer Sentiment.
Flow
Recap/
Highlights
The week of 6/15 saw bulls stay high in the nuclear theme early with call buying in OKLO, SMR, NXE. Rare Earths also with aggressive call buys in PPTA and USAR. China bulls returned in names like BEKE, BILI. Bulls remain active in Natural Gas plays EXE, CRK, APA. Refiner calls adjusted to July late day. Mid week saw UAL and ALK two airliners with sizable call buys.
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