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Weekly Market View
Open Interest Alerts
Chart
Set-Ups
Market
Talk
Flow Recap/ Highlights

Weekly
market
View

The SPX closed slightly lower on the week only due to the late Friday tariff tantrum that coincided with the SPX right at the highs of the month nearly as it filled the gap at 6100 and actually hit a high of 6120 before sliding back to a close near 6040. Overall the market was up over 1% from Mondays opening flush and finished right near the 8 EMA with larger support at the 21 EMA of near 6000. SPX also closed the month of January with a solid gain of +2.75% which modes well for the year ahead as the market has had a positive annual return 83% of years since 1950 when January sees a gain. Next week may start soft with weekend nerves but the first few days of February historically are stronger based on seasonal new month flows and as long as the key 6000 level holds then odds still are with the bulls to work back higher to new highs and likely test that 6165 JPM collar strike at some point in February. A lot of strong individual stocks continue to form bullish setups, but indices will react to headline news in the short term. With the jobs report coming Friday it will also be a key catalyst later this week for price action that continues to be resilient in the face of lukewarm sentiment and macro jitters. If SPX does close below 6000 key support, then the next real support is 5900.

Market Sentiment/Breadth

AAII sentiment for the week ending 1/29 showed bullish responses fell to 41.0% from 43.4% prior while bearish responses rose to 34.0% from 29.4%. Neutral sentiment fell to 25.0% from 27.1%. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 7.1 percentage points to 6.9%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the second time in six weeks. The NAAIM Exposure index fell to 68.28 from 86.08 last week and is below last quarter’s Q4 average of 85.81. Total equity fund flows for the week ending 1/22 had $-7.4 billion in outflows in equities. Friday’s close saw NYSE new highs at 99, while new lows of 30 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is now positive at +90. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is at 51.0% while those above their 200-MA was 62.0%. NYSI Summation index crossed above its 8-MA for a short-term bullish signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at +16 and is Neutral. The cumulative AD line is firmly above the 40 EMA short term breadth trend and above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA is at 0.55. CNN Fear and Greed index is in the Neutral zone at 46 from 42 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.89. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 shows fear and can mark a low.

Open
Interest
Alerts

WEAV impressive trend, name that has 7000 February $15 calls in open interest from late October action at $1/contract

WEAV develops a customer communication platform for service-based businesses that offers voice, short message service, email and marketing services to dental, optometry, medical, and veterinary offices

WEAV has $1.16B market cap and trades 4.9X EV/Sales with revenues seen rising 15%+ annually each of the next two years. WEAV is levered to small and medium-sized healthcare practices with its current focus a $7B TAM, very niche business. The integration of fintech solutions like payment processing; buy now, pay over time; and payment plans is a natural progression to help practitioners accelerate collections and increase the acceptance rates of additional services.

WEAV recently launched Weave Platform which it calls the most significant product launch in the company’s history, at the forefront of administrative AI solutions for healthcare practices and an AI-powered Weave Assistant is integrated throughout the new platform. AI tools could automate nearly 45% of administrative tasks in the healthcare sector, potentially saving $150 billion annually. Weave Assistant helps craft personalized responses to reviews, write professional-branded e-mails, and automate tasks like message tagging and voicemail transcriptions. Our new call intelligence product leverages a custom AI model to extract actionable insights from call data.

Chart
Set-Ups

FactSet (FDS) long-time quality name w/ nice weekly 200-week EMA base now breaking over key levels with RSI and MACD bull triggers

Market
Talk

    Stocks were strong overnight into month-end following results from Apple and Atlassian in Tech. The USD jumped sharply and the VIX sank back towards the 15-level. Before the open personal spending data came in very strong while inflation numbers in-line with market expectations. Chicago PMI came in a bit weak. Tech led the strength while commodities lagged. Breadth held positive with mostly buying pressure and the VIX stayed depressed. Next week will be another big week of earnings along with PMIs to start the week as markets look to leave a 3- month sideways range.

    The stock market was trading in good form for most of the morning, but stocks took a sharp turn lower in the early afternoon. The deterioration coincided with the White House confirming that 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China, will begin tomorrow (February 1). The basis for the tariff actions were tied to immigration, trade deficit, and fentanyl issues. It wasn’t exactly breaking news as there were similar reports out yesterday, but the added uncertainty heading into the weekend was enough to drive selling interest and quell any buy-the-dip action. 

    What’s On Tap: A massive week of earnings with two hundred reports from $10B+ market cap names including AMZN, GOOGL, DIS, PEP, PM, QCOM, PLTR, ARM, AMGN, HON, UBER, SPOT, PYPL, REGN and many more. The week kicks off with January Final PMIs, Fed speakers active and close the week with a key Jobs report. 

    Flow
    Recap/
    Highlights

     

    The start of the week of 1/27 saw the DeepSeek panic result in Put sellers into AI weakness with size puts sold in CEG, VST, ETN early. Bull flow continued through Software as well as Mega Tech names like NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL. Bulls active in cyber-security plays CRWD, CYBR, OKTA, ZS. We also saw AI bulls adjust out and open new positions in names like AVGO, GLW. By middwek, some bull positions were seen in truckers CHRW, KNX. China bull flow continued and saw a lot of bullish action in gold mining names. By Friday there were size Jan. 2027 call buys in Healthcare large caps CI, MRK, SYK. We had Feb. 28th (W) call buys in DHI, LEN for Housing to rally. 

     

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