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Technical Market View
The SPX closed strongly higher for the week after starting Monday on a soft note but that early week dip was not marked by any real bid in volatility as VIX stayed contained. The market saw a surge in breadth higher the rest of the week with impressive power and resilience especially by Thursday and Friday as the rare but reliable ‘Zweig Breadth Thrust’ confirmed right as the SPX closed above 5500 to hold firm and print a bullish engulfing weekly candle, often one of the best signals from a medium term timeframe when coming off a higher low retest as the SPX just did. The breadth thrust is a strong signal that has only occurred a handful of times in the past 10 years and measures the ratio of advancing to declining stocks and identifying when this ratio increases significantly within a short period, signifying the end of a bearish period under the hood of the markets internal health. Looking at the levels of interest shorter the SPX is overbought with the NYMO extended and prices right into the big zone near the 55 EMA and prior breakdown level of 5600 so a potential pullback into the final three days of April would not be surprising but indicators now on buy the dip signals so support comes in at 5425 where the 8/21 EMA’s are converging and nearing a bull cross. Below that would be a gap fill at 5300 but that gap from last week feels like it may be one that’s holds for now as many expected it to fade but buyers remained in control into Friday. A stronger rally would target the 200 day EMA above at 5640.
Market Sentiment/Breadth
AAII sentiment for the week ending 4/23 showed bullish responses fell to 21.9% from 25.4% prior while bearish responses fell to 55.6% from 56.9% but stayed unusually high. Neutral sentiment rose to 22.5% from 17.7%. Bearish sentiment has now been above 50% for nine consecutive weeks, the longest period over 50% in the survey’s history. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 2.2 percentage points to –33.6%. The bull-bear spread is below –20.0% for the ninth consecutive week. This is the longest streak below –20.0% since a 12-week stretch between September 14 and November 30, 1990. The NAAIM Exposure index ticked up slightly to 40.67 from 35.16 last week and is well below last quarter’s Q4 average of 72.50. This is abnormally low and near extremes still with the market bounce. Total equity fund flows for the week ending 4/16 had $-7.7 billion in outflows in equities. The prior day’s close saw NYSE new highs at 23, while new lows at just 14 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is rebounding fast at -33. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is at 32.8% after hitting a low near 6% and tends to be near washout bottoms when they get under 10% while those above 200-MA was 34.8%. NYSI Summation index is now firmly above its 8-MA for a short-term bullish signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at +80 and now Overbought short term. The cumulative AD line surged higher above the 40 EMA short term breadth trend and now above the 89 EMA long term bull signal showing the recent bottom is likely secure. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA is at 0.62. CNN Fear and Greed index is in Fear zone at 35 from 19 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.98 and now slightly under the key 1.0 level of inversion. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 shows fear and can mark a low.
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Interest
Alerts
WEAV impressive trend, name that has 7000 February $15 calls in open interest from late October action at $1/contract
WEAV develops a customer communication platform for service-based businesses that offers voice, short message service, email and marketing services to dental, optometry, medical, and veterinary offices
WEAV has $1.16B market cap and trades 4.9X EV/Sales with revenues seen rising 15%+ annually each of the next two years. WEAV is levered to small and medium-sized healthcare practices with its current focus a $7B TAM, very niche business. The integration of fintech solutions like payment processing; buy now, pay over time; and payment plans is a natural progression to help practitioners accelerate collections and increase the acceptance rates of additional services.
WEAV recently launched Weave Platform which it calls the most significant product launch in the company’s history, at the forefront of administrative AI solutions for healthcare practices and an AI-powered Weave Assistant is integrated throughout the new platform. AI tools could automate nearly 45% of administrative tasks in the healthcare sector, potentially saving $150 billion annually. Weave Assistant helps craft personalized responses to reviews, write professional-branded e-mails, and automate tasks like message tagging and voicemail transcriptions. Our new call intelligence product leverages a custom AI model to extract actionable insights from call data.
Chart
Set-Ups
FactSet (FDS) long-time quality name w/ nice weekly 200-week EMA base now breaking over key levels with RSI and MACD bull triggers
Market
Talk
Stocks opened a bit weaker as the S&P and Nasdaq rallied back up to a major resistance point this week and the VIX remains elevated due to uncertainty on trade deals, Macro and the Fed. Stocks chopped around early and bounced as Michigan Sentiment came in better than expected. Markets, though, struggled to push through major resistance and volatility stayed bid. Software and Consumer Discretionary were strong again while Bonds rallied as well but overall a more mixed tape today with more industries red. Markets dipped midday on Trump tariff headlines but quickly rebounded back to near highs to close solidly green and VIX bled lower as stocks continue to show a change of character back to the bullish side with correlations also dropping being a tailwind.
What’s On Tap: : Looking out to next week, Macro starts the week quiet before GDP on Wednesday and Jobs Report on Friday as two key events. Earnings pick up sharply with key reports due from AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, LLY, V, MA, KO, MCD, LIN, QCOM, BKNG, AMGN, SPGI, CAT, SYK, HON, SPOT, ETN, KKR, AMT, WELL, SBUX, WM, SHW, UPS, CVS, TT and many more.
Flow
Recap/
Highlights
The final full week of April began with Put buyers targeting Telecom winners VZ and T as yields surge. We noticed early lower Delta June put sales to open in Airlines UAL and DAL. Large put sales in Biotech names for August with VKTX, SRPT and BEAM. Similar plays PAGS and STNE saw size January 2027 call buys open. By Thursday and Friday the markets tone change emerged more bullish with massive June 2027 call buys in GOOGL, ARM, NFLX and AMZN, good sign for Tech longer-term. META and MSFT also saw massive call buys on other timeframes. Retail plays RL and BOOT saw large call spreads buy in the afternoon session.
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