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Technical Market View
The SPX closed higher for the week by near +1% but largely most of the gains coming on the early week strength which gapped higher Monday and held firm helped by the Mag7 mega caps and solid earnings reports from the likes of AMZN and GOOGL. Overall SPX ended October with a sixth straight month of gains which is a good sign for bulls into November as that scenario has produced strong returns into the month of November with average gains during the month of +5%. The post FOMC selloff late in the week tested the 8 EMA support thus far and Friday saw a rally end of day with a lot of choppy action into month end. Prices have held up well even with some breadth metrics declining but now that October is behind markets it allows for a fresh start into one of the stronger months in the calendar so there is potential this week to see that breadth improve and if VIX can decline from current levels it would point to the 7000 target being achieves on the SPX index. Support below here is at 6800 as a key level and then 6750 a larger retest of the former high.
Market Sentiment/Breadth
AAII sentiment for the week ending 10/29 showed bullish responses rise to 44.0% from 36.9% prior while bearish responses fell to 36.9% from 42.7%. Neutral sentiment fell to 19.1% from 20.5%. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 13.0 percentage points to 7.2%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the fourth time in 39 weeks. The NAAIM Exposure index rose to 100.83 from 90.35 last week now hitting a new high for the year and is back above last quarter’s Q3 average of 86.63, which is a historically higher average level. Total equity fund flows for the week ending 10/22 had $-19.5 billion in outflows in equities. The prior day’s close saw NYSE new highs at 64, while new lows at 95 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is still positive at +46. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is at 41% while those above 200-MA is at 56%. NYSI Summation index is showing mixed signals with the recent cross higher now reversing back to a lower cross below its 8-MA for a short-term bearish signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at -17 and is just below Neutral zone short term. The cumulative AD line pulled back to test the 40 EMA short term breadth trend and is still above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA is at 0.55 but still in a Neutral zone. CNN Fear and Greed index is in the Fear zone at 35 from 33 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.851. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 shows fear and can mark a low.
Open
Interest
Alerts
Medtronic (MDT) shares are eying a major range and long-term value breakout and the recent buys of 3000 October $95 calls stand out as well as 8/19 buys of 7500 June $100 calls on 8/19 and a name also seeing some Insider Buys.
Chart
Set-Ups
Travelers (TRV) a large cap Insurer showing a strong weekly consolidation pattern starting to break higher after being supported at the 21-week EMA. MACD weekly signal is freshly moving to a buy signal and RSI weekly as well.
Market
Talk
Stocks gapped sharply higher with Amazon and Apple earnings boosting Tech stocks while Xi/Trump and FOMC catalysts also passing this week allowing volatility to come back down. Chicago PMI beat expectations but remained firmly in contraction and saw some early profit taking in stocks as the VIX refused to crack lower. Breadth, however, stayed very strong throughout the morning led by Tech growth tied to AI but thin leadership and we faded hard midday with Trump speaking. SPY is near the 8-MA and into next week start of a new month trading with another big week of earnings reports.
What’s On Tap: Earnings remain in focus next week with key reports due from the likes of AMD, PLTR, SHOP, APP, ANET, UBER, QCOM, ARM, AMGN, ETN, SPOT, HOOD, CEG, PGR, DASH, VRTX and others. It is the start of a new trading month for flows while economic data releases remain tentative. Manufacturing and Services PMI data due out Monday and Wednesday, respectively. BoE on Thursday and Jobs Report was supposed to be out on Friday.
Flow
Recap/
Highlights
The past week saw Industrial calls started rolling to December from November in names like ITT, CAT, HAYW, GTES. Overall, the final week of October started with Flows being intense with a ton of high impact trades into earnings, no major sector bias’, well distributed and strongly bullish leans remains a trend into year-end. MSFT and META both with early $10M call buys for January into earnings weakness. More Industrials bulls rolled calls to December in names like CW, JCI, PH. Size rare earth call buys in METC, USAR. By Friday we saw massive AAPL, AMZN and TSM calls rolled to February from November, a good signal the beat goes on for Tech into 2026.
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