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The SPX closed strongly higher on the week by +3% after the lows Monday held perfectly at the anchored VWAP from the August lows and lined up with the election gap fill level of support near 5780. RSI also confirmed the move higher as it breaks above a trendline while MACD sees a bullish crossover higher. SPX closed right near the 6000 key strike price into options expiration Friday after the strong week printed a bullish weekly candle and now entering a holiday shortened week that is seeing an expected move in the options market of just about +/- 85 points. The big feature of this weeks rally was a substantial VIX volatility crush that boosted stocks but a lot of that fuel has run its course so going into the latter half of January it will be important to see stocks continue to have breadth expand as it started to show the past week. The SPX has now seen the past 5 days with each day seeing over 68% of SPX stocks advancing, the first time that has been the case in history so clearly a bullish thrust in market breadth that was needed. Support now is seen at 5940 where the 8/21 EMA is nearing a positive cross and a continued move higher should see some resistance at 6050 and then the former highs near 6100. A stronger upside advance from here into the end of month could perhaps target the JPM collar strike up near 6165. With FOMC just about 10 days away and the start of earnings season heating up, it will be crucial to see SPX hold above the 5900 zone for now and then build support above 6000 for sustainability off these recent lows, while a VIX holding under 16 would also be a welcomed development.
Market Sentiment/Breadth
AAII sentiment for the week ending 1/15 showed bullish responses fell to 25.4% from 34.7% prior while bearish responses rose to 40.6% from 37.4%. Neutral sentiment rose to 34.0% from 28.0%. The bullish reading of 25.4% is the lowest since November 2023. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 12.4 percentage points to –15.1%. The bull-bear spread is unusually low and is below its historical average of 6.5% for the fifth time in eight weeks. The NAAIM Exposure index ticked up to 70.21 from 65.38 last week and is well below last quarter’s Q4 average of 85.81. Total equity fund flows for the week ending 1/8 had $-18.9 billion in outflows in equities. Friday’s close saw NYSE new highs at 96, while new lows of 12 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is negative at -40. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is at 42.2% after getting under the 20% mark as a bottoming signal, while those above their 200-MA was 60.4%. NYSI Summation index crossed above its 8-MA for a short-term bullish signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at +58 and is into 5-month highs now nearing Overbought. The cumulative AD line is back above the 40 EMA short term breadth trend and closed above the 89 EMA long term bull signal. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA is at 0.55. CNN Fear and Greed index is in the Fear zone at 38 from 27 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.88. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 shows fear and can mark a low.
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WEAV impressive trend, name that has 7000 February $15 calls in open interest from late October action at $1/contract
WEAV develops a customer communication platform for service-based businesses that offers voice, short message service, email and marketing services to dental, optometry, medical, and veterinary offices
WEAV has $1.16B market cap and trades 4.9X EV/Sales with revenues seen rising 15%+ annually each of the next two years. WEAV is levered to small and medium-sized healthcare practices with its current focus a $7B TAM, very niche business. The integration of fintech solutions like payment processing; buy now, pay over time; and payment plans is a natural progression to help practitioners accelerate collections and increase the acceptance rates of additional services.
WEAV recently launched Weave Platform which it calls the most significant product launch in the company’s history, at the forefront of administrative AI solutions for healthcare practices and an AI-powered Weave Assistant is integrated throughout the new platform. AI tools could automate nearly 45% of administrative tasks in the healthcare sector, potentially saving $150 billion annually. Weave Assistant helps craft personalized responses to reviews, write professional-branded e-mails, and automate tasks like message tagging and voicemail transcriptions. Our new call intelligence product leverages a custom AI model to extract actionable insights from call data.
Chart
Set-Ups
FactSet (FDS) long-time quality name w/ nice weekly 200-week EMA base now breaking over key levels with RSI and MACD bull triggers
Market
Talk
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite initially moved higher Friday AM, driven by strong earnings and guidance from Broadcom (AVGO +24.4%) that buoyed sentiment in the semiconductor sector. Rising market rates kept buying efforts in check in the rest of the equity market. The 10-yr yield jumped eight basis points to 4.40% and the 2-yr yield settled five basis points higher at 4.24% ahead of next week’s expected rate cut. Semis led strength while Payments/Insurance also green but most sectors were red, Utilities and Staples modestly higher on a safety trade. Metals and Housing continues sharp selloffs while Software also saw a pullback
What’s On Tap: Top earnings reports next week include NKE, ACN, MU, CTAS, FDX, PAYX, LEN, GIS, CCL, HEI, DRI, FDS, JBL, KMX, CAG, BIRK, TTC, AMTM, ABM. The early half of the week is quiet on the Macro-front with all eyes on Wednesday’s Fed Decision. Thursday will feature Philly Fed and PCE Prices and then December options expiration on Friday.
Flow
Recap/
Highlights
The start of the week of 12/9 saw some call buys in China names like BILI, BEKE, JD into the China rally. By midweek we saw Call buyers active in Industrials for January with a lot of those adjustments continuing in names like ITT, CR, MTZ, EMR, PH, MOD, TDG. Airline leaders DAL, UAL saw massive Dec. 2025 call buys. Low delta put sellers active again in software names like ADBE, WDAY, MDB. We had a lot of size Jan. 2026 opening put sales today as well as portfolios position for the new year. Friday saw calls hot in Semis early with AVGO, MRVL, QCOM, NVDA. We saw some put buys in names presenting at JPM in January like BRKR, NTRA.
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