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Hawk’s Nest

Small-Cap Freight and Logistics Provider Draws Bull Spread After UPS Report

by | Feb 1, 2022

Forward Air (FWRD) small-cap showing relative strength recently and bull spreads on 2/1 bought 1000 February $110/$120 call spreads for $3.10 with the $100 puts sold for $1.65, unusual size for a name with little open interest. FWRD is a $2.8B asset-light freight and logistics company with both Expedited Freight and Intermodal businesses. The former provides both regional and national less-than-truckload services as well as local pick-up and delivery. The unit has benefited from growth in large appliance deliveries as well as large consumer products for residential and multi-family complexes. FWRD has key customer relationship with United, Best Buy, and Expeditors. The latter provides intermodal container drayage and warehouse and handling services. FWRD laid out plans last year to hit double-digit revenue growth, double-digit operating margins, and expansion of ROIC while also returning over $350M in capital to shareholders. They see $2B to $2.6B in annual revenue by 2023 through better customer cross-selling, accretive M&A, and better investors in tech which will improve data-driven pricing opportunities. Analysts have an average target for shares of $133 with a Street High $165. Wolfe cutting to Neutral on 1/6 as inventory levels start to improve due to better supply chain issues which will slow freight demand and pricing gains in 2H. Stephens upgrading to Overweight on 1/4. They like how FWRD has expanded its addressable market to focus more on premium less-than-truckload, or LTL, freight over the course of 2021 and also culled non-palletized freight from its network, which served to increase its available capacity by about 20%.And, as the company executes its plan to expand its existing network of about 100 terminals by about 10 or so a year for the next several years, the firm thinks there is the potential for a re-rating in the stock’s trading multiple.