Unusual Speculative Call Buys in Small Cap Oil & Gas Play
Magnolia Oil and Gas (MGY) has sold off with Oil names and at multi-month lows coming into major potential support as VWAP from the November 2020 lows at $18.40. MGY has recently seen unusual buyer accumulation of 8000 June $22.50 OTM calls. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is primarily an Eagle Ford exploration & production company with core acreage along with exploratory potential that includes the Austin Chalk. Magnolia was formed through the acquisition of private operator Enervest’s South Texas division by veteran energy executive Dr. Steve Chazen’s SPAC, TPG Pace Energy Holdings, backed by TPG Capital who plans to run the company like its predecessor with low leverage/FCF and with potential to be opportunistic, while focusing on delivering consistent shareholder returns. Magnolia is a unique E&P given the top tier assets, exploratory upside, focus on free-cash-flow, minimal debt, and attractive valuation. MGY has a market cap of $3.9B and trades 3.6X EBITDA with an 11.7% FCF yield. Magnolia reported higher 1Q23 FCF though lower forecasted EBITDAX driven primarily by better than expected spending though lower than anticipated oil prices. MGY continues to have a pristine balance sheet that includes material cash that provides unique future operational and financial opportunities. Although the company remains deliberate in its exploration of the Giddings field, it has de-risked enough inventory to support 15 years of drilling at the current pace. MGY is trading very cheap at these levels while being one of the stronger small cap growth stories in the industry, a name that could certainly attract M&A interest above $25/share and could be worth a speculative play in the June 22.50 calls.