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Technical Market View
The SPX closed strongly higher for the week by a solid +3% and now higher for 9 straight days as the breadth thrust further confirms the recent bottom and the higher low last week above SPX 5100. The index now hitting 5700 and Friday closing above its 200 day EMA for the first time since the ‘Liberation Day’ crash. Friday also saw the SPX close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 5646. This past week prices respected the first test of the rising 8 EMA after the 8/21 EMA bull cross to start the week showing momentum shifted firmly into the bull camp as RSI also got back over the 50 level for the first time since losing it in late February. Often traders will look to RSI to see what is overbought or oversold but one of the best ways to use the relative strength index is seeing when it moves above or below the 50 line and stays, aka focusing on being long when above 50 RSI. SPX now is short term extended and heading into a key week featuring the FOMC meeting as well as the week prior to monthly OPEX already. These days can see minor retracements ahead of expiration week so looking for a pullback would make sense but perhaps that occurs after SPX tests the late March high of 5800 roughly and possibly into a blowoff FOMC rally Wednesday would be an opportune time to lighten up and expect a pullback to the 8 EMA. With sentiment still low and technical indicators bullish, dips likely would continue to be bought into the May options expiration mid-month. VIX also sliding to one month lows Friday vouchers for easing risk and realized volatility.
Market Sentiment/Breadth
AAII sentiment for the week ending 4/30 showed bullish responses fell to 20.9% from 21.9% prior while bearish responses rose to 59.3% from 55.6% but stayed unusually high even after this sharp rally signaling very few traders are on board. Neutral sentiment fell to 19.8% from 22.5%. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 4.7 percentage points to –38.3%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the 17th time in 19 weeks and is below –20.0% for the 10th consecutive week. This is the longest streak below –20.0% since a 12-week stretch between September 14 and November 30, 1990. The NAAIM Exposure index rose to 59.92 from 40.67 last week and is still below last quarter’s Q4 average of 72.50. Total equity fund flows for the week ending 4/23 had $-5.7 billion in outflows in equities. The prior day’s close saw NYSE new highs at 58, while new lows at just 24 and the 10-day MA of New High/Low Differential is rebounding to positive at +2. The percentage of SPX stocks above their 50-MA is at 56.4% while those above 200-MA was 44.0%. NYSI Summation index is now firmly above its 8-MA for a short-term bullish signal. NYMO McClellan Oscillator closed at +88 and now Overbought short term. The cumulative AD line surged higher and is above the 40 EMA short term breadth trend and above the 89 EMA long term bull signal showing the recent bottom is likely secure. CBOE Equity P/C 50-day MA is at 0.62. CNN Fear and Greed index is in Fear zone at 43 from 35 last week. The VIX/VXV ratio closed at 0.945 and now slightly under the key 1.0 level of inversion. This measures the spread between 1- and 3-month implied volatility, above 1.0 shows fear and can mark a low.
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Alerts
WEAV impressive trend, name that has 7000 February $15 calls in open interest from late October action at $1/contract
WEAV develops a customer communication platform for service-based businesses that offers voice, short message service, email and marketing services to dental, optometry, medical, and veterinary offices
WEAV has $1.16B market cap and trades 4.9X EV/Sales with revenues seen rising 15%+ annually each of the next two years. WEAV is levered to small and medium-sized healthcare practices with its current focus a $7B TAM, very niche business. The integration of fintech solutions like payment processing; buy now, pay over time; and payment plans is a natural progression to help practitioners accelerate collections and increase the acceptance rates of additional services.
WEAV recently launched Weave Platform which it calls the most significant product launch in the company’s history, at the forefront of administrative AI solutions for healthcare practices and an AI-powered Weave Assistant is integrated throughout the new platform. AI tools could automate nearly 45% of administrative tasks in the healthcare sector, potentially saving $150 billion annually. Weave Assistant helps craft personalized responses to reviews, write professional-branded e-mails, and automate tasks like message tagging and voicemail transcriptions. Our new call intelligence product leverages a custom AI model to extract actionable insights from call data.
Chart
Set-Ups
FactSet (FDS) long-time quality name w/ nice weekly 200-week EMA base now breaking over key levels with RSI and MACD bull triggers
Market
Talk
Stocks opened a bit weaker as the S&P and Nasdaq rallied back up to a major resistance point this week and the VIX remains elevated due to uncertainty on trade deals, Macro and the Fed. Stocks chopped around early and bounced as Michigan Sentiment came in better than expected. Markets, though, struggled to push through major resistance and volatility stayed bid. Software and Consumer Discretionary were strong again while Bonds rallied as well but overall a more mixed tape today with more industries red. Markets dipped midday on Trump tariff headlines but quickly rebounded back to near highs to close solidly green and VIX bled lower as stocks continue to show a change of character back to the bullish side with correlations also dropping being a tailwind.
What’s On Tap: : Looking out to next week, Macro starts the week quiet before GDP on Wednesday and Jobs Report on Friday as two key events. Earnings pick up sharply with key reports due from AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, LLY, V, MA, KO, MCD, LIN, QCOM, BKNG, AMGN, SPGI, CAT, SYK, HON, SPOT, ETN, KKR, AMT, WELL, SBUX, WM, SHW, UPS, CVS, TT and many more.
Flow
Recap/
Highlights
The final full week of April began with Put buyers targeting Telecom winners VZ and T as yields surge. We noticed early lower Delta June put sales to open in Airlines UAL and DAL. Large put sales in Biotech names for August with VKTX, SRPT and BEAM. Similar plays PAGS and STNE saw size January 2027 call buys open. By Thursday and Friday the markets tone change emerged more bullish with massive June 2027 call buys in GOOGL, ARM, NFLX and AMZN, good sign for Tech longer-term. META and MSFT also saw massive call buys on other timeframes. Retail plays RL and BOOT saw large call spreads buy in the afternoon session.
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