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Hawk’s Nest

Bulls Position for Upside into Box (BOX) Earnings

by | Mar 1, 2022

Box (BOX) reporting earnings tonight after the close and name that has held up well and drawn bullish flow including buyers in the May $26 calls this week, 1300X, while the March $26 calls have 3,500 in OI from October. BOX also has 1700 January $25 short puts from 1/20 and the January $35 calls have over 2,900 in OI too. BOX traded back to multi-week support last week and bounced back to the mid-point of the range. A break above $27 clears the zone and has a bigger measured move out to $31-$32. The $3.75B company trades 23X earnings, 4.5X sales, and 15.5X FCF. BOX is coming off a tumultuous fight with activist Starboard Value where they won their proxy battle in late 2021 and now setting forth on a path towards growth. The company is coming off a strong quarter with execution improving and focus now is on investing their product and platform to create a compelling portfolio for a much more crowded market. They have been rolling out new products through acquisitions and potential for further expansion of features in 2022. Analysts have an average target for shares of $29.50 with a Street High $38. RBC upgraded to Neutral on 1/7 noting that the company’s suite-based selling approach is beginning to work, its execution is improving, and the risk-reward on the stock now looks more balanced. The firm remains cautious on Box’s long-term prospects and an increasingly commoditized market but its near-term prospects and execution have both improved. MSCO has a $30 PT for shares while RayJay also positive as the company’s efforts to sell back into its installed base has clearly improved while the path towards incremental shareholder value has become increasingly clear. Short interest is 6%.  Shares have closed lower in four of the last six but jumped 10.25% last quarter. The average closing move is 2.55% and the current implied move is 10%. The Street tonight is looking for $0.23 on $228.8M.