Bulls Target Niche Restaurant Chain Expanding into New Categories
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) with smaller, high-dollar trades on 3/29 as 400 December $130 calls were bought to open for $9.90 to $10. The activity was over 3X average calls and name with no other notable open interest. Shares rallied from the March 2020 lows and up to $180 in early 2021 before pulling back in an orderly channel to the 50% retracement where it has been basing lately. CBRL can break out of this pullback trend and shift sentiment positively above $130 with upside to $150. The $2.87B company trades 15X earnings, 0.9X sales, and 17.8X FCF with a 4.3% yield. CBRL has been managing the pandemic well recently and coming off a strong holiday season with their seasonal holiday promotions driving stronger comps and traffic. And, in select stores, their beer and wine platform has seen strong adoption. The company has also been greatly expanding their non-dining categories like everyday categories, a growing collegiate assortment, and men’s apparel, a space where they are looking to build out. CBRL has a near-term catalyst with the Easter Holiday which is expected to be a significant off-premise event for the company. Analysts have an average target for shares of $143.50 with a Street High $149. Truist positive and raising estimates in February noting that guidance suggests improving current trends, with comps accelerating to the pre-omicron mid-single-digits level. The firm also notes that Cracker Barrel’s increased menu pricing is risky given the company’s lower income consumer, but the risk is mitigated by its everyday value offerings. Benchmark noting in December that they’re more confident that incremental revenue streams the company has developed to address off-premises channels will lead Cracker Barrel to higher average unit volumes post-pandemic. Short interest is 8.5%. Hedge fund ownership rose marginally.