Harley Davidson (HOG) seeing a lot of bullish flow into 2/8 earnings including buyers last week of 3,000 February $37/$42 call spreads. This follows buyers in the February 11^th (W) $34 and $35 calls, the former 3000X, while the February $36 calls also with buyers on 12/21 that remain in open interest. The Street is looking for a $0.37 loss on $664M in sales while the FY is guided to $3.70/$4.39B, a 34.5% increase Y/Y. Shares have closed mixed since early 2020 but overall higher five of the last eight. The average closing move is 8.45% while the max move was 22.07%. The current implied move is 8.9%. The $5.48B company trades 10.2X earnings, 1.1X sales, and 6.88X FCF with a 1.68% yield. HOG is coming off of a strong quarter with US retail sales strong behind higher-margin Touring bikes, Pan America, and the recent launch of the Sportster S. HOG should continue to see strong pricing power in Q4 with demand supported by higher completion rates from Riding Academy as well as significant opportunities for Pan America. According to IHS, HOG new motorcycle registrations though November were up 5.6% versus 1.9% est. Their product lineup is also supportive of further growth in 2022 with demand for the Low Rider ST expected to be a huge winner. The biggest risks to the quarter include inventory shortages, tougher comps against stimulus benefits, and COVID impacts on labor pressuring dealerships. Analysts have an average target for shares of $52 with a Street High $70. MSCO upgrading to Equal Weight on 2/1. The firm thinks the market has priced in too negative of a setup over the next 12 months, especially if you strip out LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson’s valuation provide support at current shared levels. BMO raising estimates to $62 in October as results have been strong with retail sales, motorcycle shipment, and Financial Services performance all ahead of estimates. Harley-Davidson management has expressed confidence in its business and there’s more growth opportunities ahead as the company revitalizes the brand and builds out its new motorcycle lineup. Hedge fund ownership rose 7% last quarter with H Partners adding to their 12.5M shares. HOG has seen a lot of insider buying since mid-2020 including $1M buy from the CEO on 2/4/2021 at $32.50. Short interest is 9.5%.